Jake Fuss

Jake Fuss

LATEST STORIES BY JAKE FUSS

 

OPINION: Not a ‘vibecession’ — Canadian living standards are declining

During a recent press conference about the Trudeau government’s plan to send $250 cheques to many Canadians and suspend the GST on certain goods and services for two months, federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said Canadians are experiencing a “vibecession,” which is creating negative feelings about the economy despite “really positive economic news.” According to Freeland, these two proposals, which will cost billions, will “help Canadians get past that vibecession.” In reality, the economic woes of Canadians are real and new data from Statistics Canada shows that Canadian living standards are declining. Let’s look at the numbers. From July to September 2024, after adjusting for inflation, the Canadian economy (as measured by Gross Domestic Product) grew by 0.3%, yet per-person GDP (an indicator of living standards and incomes) actually fell by 0.4%. How can the economy grow while living standards decline? Canada’s rapid population growth, fuelled by high levels of immigration, means the overall economy has increased in size but per-person GDP has not. During the same three-month period (July to September), Canada’s population increased by 0.6% (or 250,229 people), outpacing the rate of economic growth. Not merely a one-off, this continues a historic decline in Canadian living standards over the last five years. In June 2019, inflation-adjusted per-person GDP was $59,905 compared to $58,601 in September 2024, a decline of 2.2%. And while per-person GDP has ebbed and flowed during this decline, the third quarter of 2024 marks the sixth consecutive quarter that living standards have fallen in Canada. Last week, the House of Commons approved the government’s plan to temporarily suspend the GST on select items from Dec. 14 to Feb. 15, at an estimated cost of $1.6 billion (the legislation now goes to the Senate for approval). The government has delayed the “$250 cheques” plan to potentially accommodate NDP demands to expand eligibility to include seniors (the original proposal would have sent cheques to an estimated 18.7 million Canadians at a cost of $4.7 billion). Neither one of these proposals will incentivize Canadians to work and invest;  therefore these proposals won’t help raise living standards. To help drive economic growth, create jobs and provide more economic opportunities for workers across the income spectrum, the federal government should reduce the overall tax burden on workers and businesses, and make Canada a more attractive place to work and invest. Despite any claims of a “vibecession,” Canadians remain mired in an actual recession in their standard of living. Freeland’s comments once again prove this government is disconnected from the reality many Canadians face. It’s not just bad vibes — the data shows Canadians are actually worse off today than they were in 2019. Jake Fuss and Grady Munro are analysts at the Fraser Institute

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December 3, 2024 Columnists
Closeup Canadian money coins

OPINION: High taxes hurt Canada’s ability to attract talent

With Major League Baseball’s regular season winding down and NHL training camps starting up, some big-name athletes including Maple Leafs captain John Tavares and former Toronto Blue Jays stars Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista are involved in lawsuits with Canada Revenue Agency. While the specifics of each case differ, the overall theme is the same — when signing their contracts in Toronto, these athletes adopted tax-planning strategies to manage Canada’s burdensome tax structure. One might ask: Who cares about the tax plight of multi-millionaire pro athletes? However, these high-profile cases underscore Canada’s comparative disadvantage in attracting top performers in all fields. Similar to professional athletes, other high-skilled individuals including doctors, engineers, scientists and entrepreneurs are more likely than other workers to consider tax rates when choosing where to live and work. By maintaining high tax rates relative to similar jurisdictions, Canada has a harder time attracting and retaining these talented individuals. And you’re almost guaranteed to face higher tax rates in Canada than in the United States. Regarding top personal income tax rates, 10 of the top 15 highest-taxed jurisdictions in North America (among 61 provinces and U.S. states) are Canadian including the entire top eight. A top performer in Ontario, British Columbia or Quebec faces a marginal tax rate of at least 11 percentage points higher than the median U.S. state, and 16 percentage points higher than nine U.S. states (which have no state income tax). The tax differences between these jurisdictions can be substantial for a doctor, entrepreneur, professional athlete or other high-skilled worker. Not surprisingly, the nine U.S. states with no state tax such as Texas, Florida and Tennessee have become favoured destinations for pro athletes and other top talent. In addition to hurting Canada’s ability to attract high-skilled individuals, high personal income taxes reduce incentives for Canadians to work, save and invest. For example, higher taxes reduce the income workers take home from each hour worked, so many will choose to work fewer hours, resulting in reduced economic growth and prosperity. Higher taxes also reduce savings and investment by consuming larger portions of a worker’s earnings. High tax rates can also lead to less innovation and entrepreneurship, which limits economic growth and thereby affects all Canadians, not merely the wealthy. These innovators and job creators operate in a global marketplace for talent. Once achieving free agency, the typical hockey or baseball star generally will only have 30 to 32 destinations to choose from, all within North America. In contrast, Canada competes for other types of talent with countries from around the globe, making competitiveness even more important. Professional athletes have a few things in common with other top performers. They are highly mobile and, all else equal, will move to jurisdictions that allow them to take home the highest possible after-tax earnings. While no Canadians are likely losing any sleep over John Tavares’ tax lawsuit, the broader concern over Canada’s competitiveness should be a top priority for policymakers. Alex Whalen and Jake Fuss are analysts at the Fraser Institute

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September 17, 2024 Columnists
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