Loonie slumps to COVID-era low as political risk mounts

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The Canadian dollar slid to its lowest level since March 2020 as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government slips into crisis after the shocking resignation of his finance minister.

The currency extended its recent losses to slide another 0.4% on Tuesday past 1.43 per U.S. dollar, the weakest level since the COVID-19 pandemic first shuttered cities. The loonie has been declining as the U.S.’s northern neighbour’s economy lags and officials struggle to come up with a plan to respond to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

The latest political turmoil “is symptomatic of the greater troubles facing the currency with the economy underperforming the U.S. — and now facing the threat of tariffs,” said Skylar Montgomery Koning, a foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays. “We see continued pressure on the loonie.”

On Monday, Chrystia Freeland, a former journalist who’s been finance minister since 2020, stepped down from her post with a letter that laid out her opposition to the prime minister’s push for short-term spending on voter-pleasing measures like tax breaks that expand the budget deficit. After Trump’s victory in the U.S., Freeland was picked to lead a cabinet group to develop a strategy to respond to U.S. policies.

Trump has threatened tariffs of 25% on Canada, which Deutsche Bank strategist Michael Puempel sees as more likely to be enacted following the recent political angst.

“Simply put, unless there is more stability in Canadian political leadership, we believe Trump is likely to maintain his maximalist approach to trade with one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners,” he wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. He said his base case is that Canada has an early election in the first quarter of 2025 and ends up with tighter fiscal policy.

For the loonie, that’s only adding to pressures as the Bank of Canada lowers borrowing costs — leading markets to anticipate a widening interest-rate gap with the U.S.. Earlier on Tuesday, inflation fell below the central bank’s target for the second time in three months, offering vindication for policymakers’ aggressive cuts.

The currency has fallen more than 7% against the U.S. dollar this year so far, on path to have the worst year since 2018.

The Canadian dollar “is suffering devaluation by a thousand cuts,” wrote Kit Juckes, head of currency strategy at Societe Generale, in a Tuesday note. “The Bank of Canada has taken away rate support, tariff uncertainty weighs and the government is struggling to stay unified.”

—With assistance from Carter Johnson.