These industries would be hit hardest by Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs
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OTTAWA — U.S. President Donald Trump could be just days away from hitting Canada with punishing tariffs. Here’s a look at the industries that would be hit the hardest.
Statistics Canada says the value of Canadian exports to the United States in 2023 exceeded $594 billion. More than 43 per cent of that came from just six industries: oil and gas extraction, oil and gas refining, auto manufacturing, aluminum production and processing, aerospace and crop and animal production.
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A 25 per cent tariff applied across the board would increase the cost of those exports by $148.5 billion.
The U.S. is by far Canada’s largest trading partner. While Canada’s total exports to the U.S. from all industries came to $594 billion in 2023, its total exports to all other countries combined reached only $174 billion — meaning more than 77 per cent of all Canadian exports went to the U.S.
1. Non-oilsands oil and gas extraction
Total U.S. exports in 2023: $143 billion.
U.S. exports as share of total exports: 97 per cent.
Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $121.6 billion from Alberta, $11.7 billion from Saskatchewan, $6.8 billion from Newfoundland and Labrador, $6.7 billion from British Columbia.
Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $35.8 billion.
2. Automobile and light-duty motor vehicle manufacturing
Total U.S. exports in 2023: $53 billion.
U.S. exports as share of total exports: 96 per cent.
Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $52.5 billion from Ontario, $24 million from Quebec, $17 million from Alberta.
Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $13.3 billion.
3. Canadian petroleum refineries
Total U.S. exports: $23 billion
U.S. exports as a share of total exports: 85 per cent.
Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $10.1 billion from New Brunswick, $6 billion from Alberta, $3.7 billion from Quebec, $2.4 billion from Ontario.
Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $5.8 billion.
4. Crop and animal production
Total U.S. exports: $13.1 billion
U.S. exports as a share of total exports: 32 per cent.
Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $4.7 billion from Ontario, $1.9 billion from Alberta, $1.8 billion from Saskatchewan, $1.4 billion from British Columbia, $1.2 billion from Quebec, $1.2 billion from Manitoba.
Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $3.3 billion.
5. Aluminum production and processing
Total U.S. exports: $12.8 billion.
U.S. exports as a share of total exports: 93 per cent.
Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $9.8 billion from Quebec, $2 billion from Ontario, $915 million from British Columbia.
Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $3.2 billion.
6. Aerospace production and parts
Total U.S. exports: $12.8 billion
U.S. exports as a share of total exports: 67 per cent
Provincial breakdown of U.S. exports: $8.8 billion from Quebec, $3.2 billion from Ontario, $374 million from Manitoba.
Estimated additional cost of 25 per cent tariffs: $3.2 billion.
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