Orange juice is getting squeezed by competitors, prices and storms

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Orange juice’s dominance has been slipping for years. For decades, it was considered an essential “part of a balanced breakfast,” and the sunny glassful was an unquestioned staple of morning meals.

But consumers’ tastes are changing as shoppers look for drinks with less sugar – and with promises of added functions such as boosted hydration, extra vitamins, increased energy or gut health. Orange juice is increasingly competing with beverages with dazzling ingredients and flavours, from elderflower to probiotics, and sales are continuing to decline.

“As generations recede, there’ll be fewer people who even remember that we used to have a glass of juice in the morning,” says food and beverage trend consultant Kara Nielsen. “That already is probably a dusty memory for many people.”

One horseman of the juice-pocalypse: Tropicana, a stalwart of the category, is in tough financial straits. The parent company of the 78-year-old brand has seen its revenue and profits drop, according to reports, and it is currently seeking new financing to stay afloat, Bloomberg is reporting. PepsiCo sold the company to French private equity firm PAI Partners in 2021 partly to focus on lower-sugar drinks.

A Tropicana representative declined to comment.

Melanie Zanoza Bartelme, a global food analyst at research firm Mintel, says many consumers now think of juice as a treat rather than the essential grocery item it once seemed. And younger people are increasingly looking for new and exciting flavours in juices or other beverages, she says. “There are energy drinks, there are coffee drinks, there are matcha drinks, there are boba drinks – there’s so much more competition for what you’re going to put in that Stanley cup,” she says.

Orange juice prices have been rising, too. The price of canned concentrated juice was $4.48 per 16 ounces in January 2025 – up from $2.73 in 2014, according to the government’s consumer price index.

The Florida Citrus Council – the organization that has long run advertising campaigns promoting the state’s official elixir – has been trying to rebrand orange juice as the original functional beverage. “It’s time to remind American consumers that what they love about functional beverages is everything that Florida Orange Juice has been, as well as everything they’ll ever want in a drink that tastes great, has multiple health benefits, and is a complement to a daily hydration routine,” the organization’s chairman, Steve Johnson, wrote last month.

But the Sunshine State’s most famous crop is getting seriously squeezed, and not just by lack of demand or by all its new competitors. Production of Florida oranges is down to record lows, after years of hurricane damage, diseases and commercial and residential development that is eating up former farmland. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the 2024-2025 crop is expected to be 11.5 million boxes, down 36 percent from last season, which itself was a record low. For context, a record 244 million boxes of oranges were harvested in Florida during the 1997-1998 season.

Hurricanes Ian in 2022 and Milton in 2024 battered groves, reducing supplies that have also been threatened for years by a tree-killing citrus disease called greening. Greening, which causes trees to produce green and bitter fruits, has infected nearly all of Florida’s groves. Scientists at the University of Florida are developing disease-resistant varieties, but even if successful, their efforts would likely be years away from making significant inroads in the marketplace.

Meanwhile, the industry is looking to legislation at the state and federal level to help it fight the headwinds by increasing research to boost yields and lowering the federal standard for sugar levels to account for less-sweet fruits.

OJ’s fortunes rose briefly during the pandemic, when people were looking for immunity-boosting foods, experts note. That’s when consumers demonstrated that their concerns about sugar were overridden by their desire for foods long associated with fighting illnesses.

“But that health halo around immunity has worn off, and the bigger issue for most shoppers is their pocketbook and also, like, do I also have enough money left over for these six other cool beverages that are more functional?” Neilsen says.

As for the future of orange juice, Zanoza Bartelme suggests it just might become the Martin Short of the beverage world: A onetime headliner now relegated to co-starring roles alongside younger, hipper stars, a la the actor’s turn in Hulu’s hit series “Only Murders in the Building.”

“Selena Gomez is like the yuzu or the calamansi bringing something new to his life,” she says. “We still love our Martin Short, but he’s going to share the spotlight, right?”