Poll shows voters expect Liberal government but actually want Conservatives in charge

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Canadians expect the current federal election will return a Liberal minority government but that isn’t what they want.

A new poll from the Angus Reid Institute has some surprise results including that only about half of Liberal voters are hoping for a Justin Trudeau-led majority government.

The survey of 1,639 voters was conducted Aug. 27-29 and found 33% of voters said they would back the Conservatives, 30% the Liberals, 21% the NDP, 7% the Bloc, 4% the People’s Party, and 3% the Greens.

When asked what result they expected from the election, 49% said a Liberal minority was the most likely outcome, 26% said a Conservative minority and 17% said a Liberal majority.

When asked what result they would like to see happen, the results were very different.

A Conservative majority was picked as the preferred outcome of 32% of all voters compared to just 17% of voters who said they would like to see a Liberal majority. In fact, more voters chose an NDP majority — 18% — than selected a Liberal majority.

A Liberal minority is the preferred outcome of 14% of voters, a Conservative minority was chosen by 10% and 9% chose an NDP minority.

The only part of the country where a Liberal majority was preferred over a Conservative majority was Quebec, where 21% said they want the Liberals in power compared to 19% who favoured the Conservatives.

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In Ontario, 31% prefer a Conservative majority compared to 21% backing a Liberal majority.

Most shockingly, only 52% of voters who say they are backing the Liberals want a Trudeau-led majority as the preferred outcome. That’s a marked difference from 81% of Conservative voters who want an Erin O’Toole majority and 63% of NDP voters wanting a Jagmeet Singh majority.

The Conservative Party forming government is now the preferred option in every gender and age demographic group with the exception of women 18-34, where 50% support the NDP forming government.

blilley@postmedia.com