Greater Toronto home sales drop in March amid trade concerns: TRREB

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Home sales in the GTA fell 23.1% in March while more supply hit the market, helping bring down prices compared with a year ago.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said 5,011 homes were sold last month, compared with 6,519 in March 2024. Sales were down 2.4% from February on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Meanwhile, 17,263 new properties were listed in the GTA last month, up 28.6% compared with last year. Total inventory in the region surged 88.8% to 23,462.

TRREB chief information officer Jason Mercer said many households interested in buying a home are likely taking a “wait-and-see approach” given the economic implications of ongoing trade uncertainty and a federal election campaign.

“If trade issues are solved or public policy choices help mitigate the impact of tariffs, home sales will likely increase,” he said in a news release.

“Homebuyers need to feel their employment situation is solid before committing to monthly mortgage payments over the long term.”

While Canada dodged widespread U.S. tariffs on Wednesday, some of Canada’s biggest industries still face existential threats from border taxes. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that imported vehicles would be subject to 25% tariffs, which includes vehicles produced in Canada despite an existing free-trade deal.

Canada’s steel and aluminum industries are also still subject to 25% tariffs, as are goods not compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement.

The economy is going through a period of uncertainty because of those trade tensions, said Cameron Forbes, a Toronto-area broker and general manager at Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc.

“People, when they’re not certain, they don’t act, unless it’s an emergency, obviously,” he said.

“So you have people who are employed, they’re doing well, the interest rates are coming down for them, but they’re on the sidelines in terms of buying because they are uncertain. They’re just not sure what the tariffs mean.”

TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule expressed optimism that home sales activity will rebound once consumers regain confidence in the economy and their job security. She said the picture has already improved over the past year for those looking to buy a property.

“Home ownership has become more affordable over the past 12 months, and we expect further rate cuts this spring,” she said in a statement.

“Buyers will also benefit from increased choice, giving them greater negotiating power.”

The average selling price in March decreased 2.5% compared with a year earlier to $1,093,254, as the composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.8% year-over-year.

The Bank of Canada has cut its key interest rate seven times since last June, bringing it down to 2.75%. Those cuts had helped bring buyers off the sidelines last fall and TRREB predicted earlier this year that sales would rise more than 12% in 2025, as homebuyers continued to take advantage of lower borrowing costs.

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But it cautioned at the time that the positive effect of lower mortgage rates could be offset by trade disruptions and lower consumer confidence.

Forbes said there’s no doubt that trade tensions have changed this year’s early outlook.

“There’s definitely some momentum that was taken out of the market because of the Trump tariffs and the uncertainty,” he said.

“It’s not even the tariffs themselves. It’s just the uncertainty of, ’What does it mean to me and my family?’ and people are struggling with that answer. It’s going to take a few months here before they know.”

He predicted activity would rebound by the summer, especially if the government steps in with support programs for those most affected by tariffs.

For those with job security looking to get into the market now, Forbes said it’s a great time to take advantage of less competition.

“You can take a little more time to make sure that you and your family are comfortable with the option you’re choosing,” said Forbes.

“But it’s very tough for us psychologically to do the opposite of what we think the herd is doing.”

In the City of Toronto, there were 1,908 sales last month, a 16.9% drop from March 2024. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales fell 26.5% to 3,103.

All property types saw fewer sales in March compared with a year ago throughout the region.

Detached homes saw the steepest decline with 24.9% fewer sales, followed closely by condos at 23.5% and townhouses at 23.2%. There were 15.9% fewer sales of semi-detached homes.