Less snow, milder temperatures in Toronto this winter?

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Torontonians just might have to “let it snow, let it snow, let it snow” this winter after all.

The Weather Network’s meteorologist Doug Gillham says despite a hopeful AccuWeather 2022-2023 Canada Winter forecast saying Toronto could get less snowfall and milder temperatures, he’s not convinced.

“They use La Nina (a climatological phenomenon, which has been present in Canadian winters for the last three years) as the basis of their forecast,” said Gillham.

“When you look back at history, La Nina, and Toronto snowfall, some of the least snowiest winters are associated with La Nina and some of the snowiest winters also La Nina. So they said it could be less snow. Well, as long as you put could in there. We haven’t put out an official forecast yet but I think this winter is near normal or snowier than normal.”

Gillham bases that hunch on global weather patterns.

“What we tend to see with La Nina is an active storm track and beyond normal precipitation,” he said.

“But how that tips for snowfall depends on whether that storm track is just north of us and we keep being on the mild side of those storms and we get a lot of rain and messy mix. Or is it more like last year and we’re often on the cold (or south) side of the storm track. Think to last winter. We remember last winter because of the big storm in mid-January that dumped record snow (40 to 50-plus inches across the GTA) and then it stuck around for a month-and-a-half.”

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As for milder temperatures for Toronto, Gilllham thinks “this winter more closely resembles last year, which had mild periods but overall ended up on the cold side of normal.”

He says normal temperatures for late January are -2C to minus-3C as a high and -10C as a low.