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'Very concerning' — Windsor workers are Canada's biggest casualty in tariff trade war

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The trade war with the United States is taking its toll on Windsor-area workers as the region’s unemployment rate jumped to a national high of 11.2 per cent in June.

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Last month’s unemployment figures increased by 0.4 while Ontario enjoyed a 0.1 drop to 7.8 per cent, and the national rate shrank similarly to 6.9 per cent.

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The number of unemployed people locally rose by 800 to 29,200. That’s more than double June 2023’s total of 14,200.

“These numbers are very concerning,” said Workforce WindsorEssex CEO Justin Falconer.

“The number of unemployed people tells you the real story on the ground. The highest unemployment rate we’ve had in the past 14 years was 17.5 per cent during Covid (May 2020).

“We’re not there yet, but we’re certainly out of the norm for us.”

Windsor’s unemployment rate is 1.2 per cent higher than the next closest municipality, Peterborough, which sits at 10.0 per cent.

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Southwestern Ontario’s manufacturing heartland shared the unemployment pain, with London experiencing a 0.3 jump to 7.2 per cent, while Guelph’s rate rose 0.9 to 5.8 per cent. Kitchener-Waterloo’s tech corridor enjoyed a 0.1 decrease to 7.2 per cent.

The slowdown in employment opportunities is also being matched by the area experiencing the first month of no population growth in four years. The Windsor-Essex region’s population remained at 409,800 residents.

“It’s the first time in 48 months our population hasn’t grown,” Falconer said. “Over those 48 months, we’ve added 44,000 people who are 15 years of age or older.”

Falconer said the rise in Windsor’s unemployment rate is clearly linked to the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign.

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Since Trump took office in January, Windsor’s unemployment rate has risen 2.1 per cent. Trump threatened to pile more misery on Canada Thursday night by announcing he’d raise the tariff rate on Canada to 35 per cent on August 1 if the two nations don’t have a new trade deal.

The 35 per cent tariff wouldn’t apply to CUSMA-compliant goods such as vehicles and auto parts, which have sector-related tariffs of 25 per cent.

“The business environment is not good in Canada right now and Windsor is certainly on the frontlines of that,” Falconer said.

“About 8.8 per cent of workers in Canada are in U.S.-trade dependent jobs, but in the Windsor-Sarnia economic region, it’s 15.8 per cent. About one in five local workers are in manufacturing compared to 9.9 per cent for Canada.”

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The number of people holding jobs in June shrank by 2,700 while the overall labour force declined by 2,000 to 261,000 people.

With job prospects hard to come by, especially for youth (15 to 24 years of age) and returning students, there was an increase of 2,000 people who are no longer looking for work.

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The unemployment rate for those 15 to 24 was 17 per cent in June.

“Locally, there were 7,400 unemployed youths,” Falconer said.

“That number has been coming down in recent months, but I wonder how much that is due to discouragement and people having stopped looking for jobs.”

The biggest local job losses last month came in healthcare (1,500), manufacturing (1,400), construction (800) and food services/accommodation (800).

Sectors posting job gains included wholesale/retail trade (800), finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (700) and professional, scientific and technical services (700).

Dwaddell@postmedia.com

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