About 80% of Canadians say Trump won’t honour a trade deal: Poll

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Mark Carney’s government has been trying to reach a new trade accord with the U.S., but most Canadians are skeptical that President Donald Trump will keep his word on any deal.

Four in five Canadians say they think it’s unlikely that Trump would honour a future trade agreement with their country, according to a poll by Nanos Research Group conducted for Bloomberg News.

The survey highlights a political challenge for Carney, who became prime minister in March, then won a snap election in April by promising to strike a new trade and security relationship with the U.S. He hasn’t been able to deliver on that yet, and the Nanos poll suggests the public harbours serious doubts that any agreement would be lasting.

Trump signed off on the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement during his first term in office, hailing it as the “largest, fairest, most balanced and modern trade agreement ever achieved.” Since returning to power in January, he has nevertheless imposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and other products from Mexico and Canada.

On Aug. 1, the U.S. increased its tariff to 35% on imports of Canadian products that don’t comply with USMCA (CUSMA). The previous rate was 25%. The White House said the move was justified because Canada hasn’t done enough to crack down on fentanyl trafficking.

Still, Canadian exporters, on average, face a lower tariff rate because the White House has kept an exemption in place for many products from Canada and Mexico, as long as they’re shipped in compliance with the rules of CUSMA. The trade agreement is scheduled for a review next year.

The economic stakes of a trade deal are much higher for Canada than for most other countries. Last year, three-quarters of Canada’s merchandise exports went to the U.S., led by oil and gas. Exports represent about a third of the country’s gross domestic product.

At the same time, the northern nation is a large market for U.S. exporters — about $440 billion in U.S. goods and services last year, more than any other country, according to U.S. Commerce Department data. Excluding energy products, the U.S. has a trade surplus with Canada.

Trump has made a series of deal announcements with other trading partners including Japan, South Korea and the U.K. that reduce taxes on U.S. imports of their products. But the vague terms mean major trading partners have to been made to wait before the promised tariff relief kicks in.

In May, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he’d cut a deal with Trump to see U.S. tariffs on British steel reduced to zero. It hasn’t happened yet. Nor has the promised reduction of U.S. import taxes on vehicles from the European Union, Japan and South Korea.

In a Tuesday interview with CNBC, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said written documents on some recent trade deals were “weeks away.”

In the same Nanos survey, a majority of respondents said the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Canadian economy is about the same as they’d expected. Fifteen percent said the impact has been better than they thought it would be, 17% said it was worse and 12% of respondents were unsure.

Nanos surveyed 1,034 Canadian adults online and on the phone between July 31 and Aug. 6. The results are accurate to plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

— With assistance from Laura Dhillon Kane.