Western discontent lingers, but voters in Calgary say unity matters
'Idea of separation is good in theory until . . . rubber hits the road,' says retired political sociologist
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With national polling showing the Liberals slightly ahead in the federal election race, concerns are growing about Western alienation and calls for Alberta separation. But some Calgary voters say separation isn’t the answer.
The latest 338Canada projections show the Liberals with 42 per cent of voter support, followed by the Conservatives at 38 per cent. An Angus Reid poll released earlier this month found that 25 per cent of Albertans support the idea of Alberta becoming an independent country, with that number rising to 30 per cent if the Liberals form the next government.
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Trevor Harrison, a retired political sociologist at the University of Lethbridge, says while those numbers reflect frustration, true support for separation would likely be smaller in the event of a referendum.
“The idea of separation is good in theory until . . . the rubber hits the road,” he said. “There’s a lot of practicalities.”
Harrison says separatist sentiment “ebbs and flows” in Alberta, and while discontent is something leaders should pay attention to, he cautions against overemphasizing them.
“If 25 per cent of people are somewhat persuaded about wanting to separate, that means 75 per cent are not,” he said, noting support is more concentrated in southern Alberta.
Ahead of the election, Premier Danielle Smith issued a list of demands to the federal government to avoid an “unprecedented national unity crisis,” including the repeal of the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69), emissions caps and net-zero mandates.
Harrison said politicians often amplify anti-Ottawa sentiment for political gain.
“If you are a provincial premier and you want to bolster your support, run against Ottawa,” he said. “It’s always the Liberals, it’s always Ottawa and Canada treating Alberta unfairly. It’s kind of baked in the cake. That’s the way politics in Canada operates.
“It’s always a fight between provinces and the central government, and some politicians go with it (more) strongly than others, and Danielle Smith certainly plays that card.”
All options should be on the table in event of Liberal win, says former party leader
Former Maverick Party leader Colin Krieger, who ran in Peace River–Westlock in 2021, says a Liberal win would be “catastrophic” — but also a potential tipping point.
“It’ll be the end of Canada as we know it . . . I hope,” he said. “If they win, it is going to take the fire that is Western (discontent) . . . and it’s gonna pour gasoline on it.
“I believe that there will be a major push toward having either a government-led or a citizen-led referendum, provincewide referendum, in regards to either joining the United States or becoming an independent nation.”
If Mark Carney’s Liberals win, Krieger said it will be the vehicle for major change in regard to how Alberta “fits in with the rest of Canada.”
Though Krieger doesn’t favour joining the U.S. as a top choice, he said all options should be on the table.
“It’s not the worst option, but it certainly isn’t my first option,” he said. “I believe that independence would be better, myself. It’s certainly not the easier way, but I do believe it’s the best way.”
He says the immediate focus is getting Conservative MPs elected. Following the election, he expects attention to turn to provincial leaders and putting pressure on Smith to assert provincial autonomy.
“Western Canadians should be reaping 100 per cent of the rewards that they produce,” he said. “Frankly, as a western Canadian, I’m tired of paying for everybody else.
“I think that 100 per cent of the money should stay here.”
‘I think it’s better to have one united Canada’
On a sunny Thursday afternoon along the Bow River in Calgary’s East Village, Calgarians showed little support for Kreiger’s take.
“It’s a stupid idea,” said Vernon Frolick. “I’m distressed by it.
“People in America . . . they’re suffering the consequence of a Trump administration,” he said, adding he’s “absolutely” proud to be a Canadian. “Especially now that America’s attacking Europe and attacking Ukraine and wanting to side with Russia, which is a totally monstrous state,” he said.
Heather Good, a longtime social worker, questioned the Angus Reid poll’s validity.
“I see how little care and concern there is for people who are of minorities, who are living in poverty,” she said. “I think there’s a lot that needs to be done and changed, but I don’t think separation is the answer.”
Felix Ochieng said he understands where some of the frustration comes from, pointing to concerns about equalization and federal energy policies, but believes a united Canada offers more in the long run.
“There’s a feeling that we are not getting the very best deal, especially from the federal government,” he said. “But I don’t think it’s practical at the end of the day.
“I think it’s better to have one united Canada.”
To learn more about who’s running in your riding and the focus of their campaigns, check out our list of federal election candidates in Calgary and Southern Alberta.
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