Gap narrowing between Liberals, Conservatives: Poll

Article content

OTTAWA — New polling suggest the Liberals’ lead is narrowing.

And while Canadians seem to have lost faith in the NDP and leader Jagmeet Singh, these new numbers suggest New Democrats are sharing in that sentiment.

In Leger’s latest poll conducted for Postmedia, the Liberals dropped 1% while the Conservatives went up 1% — putting support for the Liberals at 43%, compared to the Conservatives’ 38%.

That closes the gap between the two front-runners to 5%.

Support for other parties remained more or less consistent from last week: NDP, 8%; Bloc Quebecois, 6%;  Green Party, 3%; People’s Party of Canada, 2%; and others, 1%.

With the federal election now past its halfway point, voters are firming up their choices — with 68% of respondents saying they’ve made up their minds. Just 31% say their minds may change between now and election day.

Ontario voters led the way when it came to making up their minds, with 71% saying their choice is final — while Quebec voters are more likely to change their mind.

Broken down by party, 76% of declared Conservative voters say they’re certain on their choice, compared to 70% of Liberal supporters, 58% of Bloc voters, 40% of NDP backers, 39% of Green supporters, and 47% of PPC voters.

And not surprisingly, President Donald Trump is having a big impact on the election as 58% responded the American leader influenced their vote, while 37% said the second-term president had no bearing on who they support.

The Trump factor was front and centre for 79% of Liberal voters, while the majority (55%) of Tory voters say he had no influence on who they support.

When asked about who was running the best campaign, 38% said it was Mark Carney — up 2% from last week, while 29% said it was Pierre Poilievre, a 1% bump from last week.

While an unsurprising majority of Liberal and Conservative supporters said their respective party’s leader was running the best campaign, most (38%) NDP supporters said Carney — with party leader Jagmeet Singh tying for second place with “I don’t know” at 26%.

As for who’d make the best prime minister, 38% of respondents embraced Carney, while 30% picked Poilievre and 7% chose Singh.

The poll also found:

— While 86% of Liberals and 83% of Tories said their own party’s leader would make the best prime minister, only 58% of NDP voters identified Singh as the best choice, while 21% ranked Carney second best.

— While the NDP dwell in single-digit hell, they ranked as Canada’s most popular second choice so far in this election — with 24% saying they like the New Democrats second-best.

— 15% of respondents said the Liberals were their second choice, followed by 10% choosing the Conservatives, 8% the Greens and 7% the PPC, with 5% of Quebeckers saying the Bloc were their second choice.

— 23% of respondents had no second choice.

— Nearly half of Liberal voters ranked the NDP as their second choice.

— An overwhelming majority of Conservative supporters — 73% — chose the PPC as their second choice.

Conducted April 11-14, the poll surveyed  3,005 Canadian adults via Leger’s online panel. As margins of error cannot be applied to online panels, an equivalent sample size would result in a margin of error of 1.79%, 19 times out of 20.

bpassifiume@postmedia.com
X: @bryanpassifiume