KINSELLA: Conservatives' fall in the polls could lead to fall of the Conservative Party

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What if the Conservatives lose?

Every poll, just about, now suggests they will. The seat projections are worse. Even the polls that describe a very tight race — like Mainstreet — project a Mark Carney Liberal majority.

Polls are a snapshot in time, the saying goes, and they are. So, politicos pay attention instead to the trendline: That is, what a number of polls — over a longish period of time and asking substantially the same groups of people substantially similar questions — have to say. That’s the trendline.

The trendline, for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, has been very grim indeed. Since the departure of Justin Trudeau, and the return of Donald Trump, the Poilievre Tories have presided over one of the most astonishing polling freefalls in living memory.

In January, not so long ago, the Conservatives were enjoying extraordinary popularity. Their lead over the Liberals seemed insurmountable: 26 points with Ipsos, 24 with Angus Reid. Abacus and Innovative, 21 points. Leger — the outfit that was the most accurate in recent federal elections — pegged their lead at 18 points.

It was the stuff of political fairytales. It meant that Poilievre was on track to win one of the biggest — if not the biggest — parliamentary majorities in Canadian history.

And then, everything changed.

As in all things political, it’s never one thing that kills you. It’s a multiplicity of things: Trump hello, Trudeau goodbye, 51st state, tariffs. Add to that the ascension of Carney to the Liberal throne — and the Conservatives’ stubborn refusal to adjust their strategy accordingly — and you have a formula for disaster.

From the heady days of a near-30-point lead to now: The Liberals ahead three points with Ipsos, and five points with Reid. Abacus, three points. Leger showing four points — and Angus Reid showing the Grits with crushing leads in the seat-abundant cities of Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.

How did this happen? Poilievre and his chief strategist, Jenni Byrne, have run a tight, disciplined campaign. They had candidate bimbo eruptions, yes, but so did everyone else. Truly, Poilievre and Byrne didn’t make many big mistakes. At all.

It is easy to understand, then, the crushing disappointment the Tories now feel: They have effectively lost 30 percentage points in a matter of weeks. That has never really happened before, as noted.

So, what happens now?

Barring some extraordinary event, they are going to lose the election next week, perhaps badly. A Liberal majority seems probable. What do the Tories do, then?

If it’s a Carney majority, and not a minority, Poilievre will be under immediate pressure to take responsibility and resign. Throwing his campaign strategists under the proverbial bus won’t be enough: Some Conservatives are going to be very, very angry. They will want him gone.

If Poilievre chooses to tough it out, he risks the same fate of Erin O’Toole and Andrew Scheer. The Conservative caucus has fired leaders before, and — if the seat count is bad — Tory MPs will likely do so again.

Outside the caucus, there will be rage.

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Western Conservatives will commence beating the drum of separatism again. Danielle Smith will almost certainly signal her refusal to abide by laws passed by the hated Ottawa Liberals. And, possibly, the Conservative Party of Canada will cease to be.

It’s happened before. The party broke into factionalism in the Jean Chretien decade — some going to the Bloc Quebecois, some staying with the Progressive Conservatives, and many (like Poilievre himself) becoming Reformers. It will be very hard for him to argue against others doing what he did, won’t it?

If the Conservative Party falls apart, however, it will be a profound loss for Canada, and it will create problems for one Mark Carney, as well. At a time when Trump is trying to divide us, Carney does not need a nascent Western separatist movement making Trump’s job much easier.

None of this could come to pass, of course. A minority might provide the Grits with a needed dose of humility, and it might keep Poilievre at his party’s helm. It might keep the country, and the Conservatives, intact.

It’s all speculation, at this point. This isn’t, however:

What seemed impossible 12 weeks ago? It is now likely.