Pollsters break down election night possibilities

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OTTAWA — With the Tories and Liberals locked in a virtual dead heat, what will determine the outcome Monday night?

If you said “Ontario,” you’d be correct — but according to pollsters Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Leger, and Darrell Bricker, CEO for Ipsos Public Affairs, there’s always more behind the numbers.

While most polls and pundits suggest we’ll see yet another Liberal minority, what would it take for any of the other possibilities?

Liberal Majority

“A really strong showing in Ontario,” explained Enns, who said the Liberals need to dominate in both the GTA and southwestern Ontario to secure a majority government.

“For the Conservatives, conversely, a couple of their held ridings in Ontario are in trouble — (flipping those) would be a first sign that the Liberals are having a good night.”

But a Liberal majority, Enns said, lives or dies in Quebec.

“The Bloc Quebecois vote in our last poll was 26% —  close to making an impact in pulling back some of the seats largely at risk to the Liberals throughout the campaign,” he said.

“But if that 26% turns into 27% or 28%, now suddenly some of those gains the Liberals need to build that majority might actually fall back to the Bloc.”

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The Liberals, Bricker said, could absolutely reach majority territory on Monday.

“They’re doing better in western Canada, they’re doing better in Quebec, they’re probably going to do better in Atlantic Canada,” he said.

“There’s potential for a Liberal majority.”

Conservative minority

Bricker said the fast-moving poll numbers make a Conservative minority a realistic outcome.

“Two weeks ago, the Liberals were ahead by 12, a week ago they were ahead by six, the start of (last) week they were ahead by three,” he said.

“Where are they today? Good question.”

For the Tories to squeak out a Monday night win, Enns added, they need to hold on to ridings they already have.

“Even as early as Atlantic Canada … if given an early sign that things maybe broke a little bit over the weekend,” Enns said.

“In Quebec they’re going to do their usual 10 or 12, I don’t see much changing there, but then when you get to Ontario, they need to be punching through the GTA.”

Conservative majority

While a long-shot, Enns said a Tory majority would require extraordinary wins in both the 416 and 905.

“It’d take a real significant breakthrough in Ontario,” he said.

“They’re going to have a good night in British Columbia, I think they’ll do fine in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba — if it’s a good night for them they’ll hold what they’ve got, probably add at least one.”

He said the numbers, however, don’t predict any blue waves crashing on the shores of Atlantic Canada or Quebec.

“It’s really going to be Ontario,” he said.

“Maybe pick up some Ottawa suburbs, but they’d have to have a really good night in the GTA, kind of the 2011 Harper kind of night in the GTA.”

If the Tories chip away too many vital Liberal seats in Ontario, Bricker said, the Tories have a shot at landing a majority.

“The difference for the Liberals is Ontario,” he said.

“If Ontario’s even, then it’s a toss-up as to who’s going to win — but if the Tories move three, four, five points ahead in Ontario, that may only have a 1% or 2% effect on the national numbers, but that’s how you win an election.”

What ridings to watch on election night?

Bricker will be watching the 905 ridings on Monday — particularly Milton, as well as York and Durham regions, and Kitchener-Waterloo.

In Toronto, he’s got his eye on Kevin Vuong’s old riding of Spadina-Harbourfront (formerly Spadina-Fort York,) where Liberal Chi Nguyen is expected to win.

He’ll also be watching ridings where the NDP previously reigned supreme — particularly Matthew Green’s Hamilton Centre.

“There’s some downtown seats in Winnipeg, and in Vancouver: Are the Liberals going to win those over the NDP?” he said.

“How are the splits going to work in those places?”

Being the good Manitoba boy that he is, Enns said he’ll be watching Winnipeg West, where incumbent Tory Marty Morantz is at risk to losing his seat to Liberal Doug Eyolfson, as well as Churchill—Keewatinook Aski, where the NDP’s Niki Ashton may lose to Liberal Rebecca Chartrand.

In the GTA, he’ll be watching Liberal Leah Taylor Roy’s battle with Tory Costas Menegakis in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, as well as ridings in Oakville and Mississauga.

“Harper won those (ridings) a couple of times during his tenure, and they haven’t been able to win them back,” Enns said.

“I really don’t think you’re really getting very far if you can’t make some really substantial inroads in some of those ridings.”

bpassifiume@postmedia.com
X: @bryanpassifiume