New year won't cure Trudeau's raucous caucus

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OTTAWA — If you thought 2024 was bad, just wait until the new year.

With internal discord within Justin Trudeau’s Liberal caucus continuing to bubble to the surface, there’ll be little relief for the prime minister in the new year, explained McMaster University Political Scientist Peter Graefe — who said that governments live and die by confident and supportive caucuses.

“The lack of unity is a clear indication that the prime minister will have a difficult time getting things done in the coming year both in government and the looming federal election, simply because he doesn’t have the team,” he said.

“He doesn’t have the support of his own people and in that instance, even if you hold all the levers, they then become not connected to very much.”

With former finance minister Chrystia Freeland citing a potential tariff war with the United States as a catalyst for her falling-out with Trudeau, Graefe said he doesn’t blame Liberal MPs for growing concerned with the direction Canada’s going.

“With Canada going into difficult negotiations with the United States, his caucus would be irresponsible if they leave it in a situation where support for the prime minister is uncertain,” he said.

“It’s going to be increasingly difficult to make credible commitments in an international negotiation when the other side other table says, ‘Who actually supports you? You don’t even have support within your own party.'”

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With some pundits comparing Trudeau’s caucus revolt to the situation faced by Prime Minister John Diefenbaker in the 1960s, Graefe said it actually bears comparison to a more contemporary government.

“In some ways, maybe the clear comparison is with Paul Martin,” he said, referring to the acrimonious relationship between then-prime minister Jean Chretien and Martin, his finance minister, in the early 2000s.

“When you think of the Diefenbaker period, there’d be some similarities — although fewer people baring knives.”

He said that while there were certainly people within his own party out to get Diefenbaker, Trudeau’s situation is much more depressing because those who want him gone once enjoyed great success hitching their wagons to the once-popular political leader’s brand.

“It seems fewer people are willing to hold the knife,” Graefe said.

“Obviously Diefenbaker had his coattails in the 1958 election, but he still had strong regional ministers. The modern party is the party of Trudeau, and I think there’s a lot of people who are having a hard time figuring out how to do get rid of Trudeau? He’s the person, nevertheless, who brought you to this point.”

bpassifiume@postmedia.com
X: @bryanpassifiume