Pierre Poilievre's Carleton riding has highest advance turnout in the country

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Almost half of the eligible voters in Carleton cast ballots in advance polls, giving the closely watched Ottawa riding the highest voter turnout in the country — by a significant margin.

There are 105,091 people who are eligible to vote in Carleton, the riding that has long been held by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. During advance polling over the long Easter weekend, 43,394 of them voted.

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The next highest turnout — in Saanich-Gulf Islands — was well back with 37,468 voters. Ottawa’s Nepean riding, where Liberal Leader Mark Carney is running, had the sixth highest voter turnout in the country with 32,689 advance ballots cast.

Across Canada, record numbers of voters turned out between April 18 and 21. Elections Canada says an estimated 7.28 million people voted. The previous record, in 2021, was 5.8 million. Many voters reported waits of an hour or much longer to vote.

High turnout at advance polling is often attributed to a wish for change on the part of voters.

“Broadly higher turnout in advance polls usually indicates that there is a change momentum, that people are mobilized and know how they are going to vote,” said Lori Turnbull, a professor of political science at Dalhousie University.

That is often bad for the government, but she noted that Poilievre has represented the riding for more than 20 years, although this is his first time as leader.

“It is not a change moment for them.”  She added that when voters feel there is a heavy ballot question and have a sense of consequence about their vote, it can also increase the numbers who vote in advance polls.

“This is a pretty unusual time,” she said.

Carleton, which stretches across the southern edge of Ottawa from Arnprior to near Cumberland, has become one of the highest-stakes ridings in the country during what is already a high-stakes election.

Not only did it have the highest early turnout in advance polling but it has the longest ballot in the country, and in Canadian history in a general election.

A protest by the so-called Longest Ballot committee helped dozens of candidates register to run in the riding that Poilievre has held for more than 20 years. As a result, there are 91 names on the ballot, making it almost a metre long.

The sheer volume of names and size of the ballot have created logistical challenges for election officials. Having a large percentage of votes cast in advance polls could help speed up what is expected to be delayed counting. Elections Canada officials have said they might allow counting of advance ballots to begin earlier than normal to avoid delays. That might have motivated some people to vote early.

The campaign has also turned into a tight race with Liberal challenger Bruce Fanjoy within an estimated five points of incumbent Poilievre, according to Liberal sources.

That has turned what has long been considered a safe Conservative seat into a tight race with both Liberals and Conservatives sending in extra resources in the final days to get out the vote. Poilievre’s campaign scheduled a “whistle stop” rally in the riding on Sunday evening.

Fanjoy’s campaign attributes the record number of advance voters to a desire for change in the riding.

“Residents in Carleton are coming together to vote for Bruce Fanjoy because they want to put a stop to Pierre Poilievre and his American-style politics,” the campaign said in a statement.

Poilievre’s campaign says it is confident he will win the seat.

Poilievre, who was once poised to lead a majority government, now faces battles at the national and local levels. Liberals remain in the lead nationally, although the race has tightened in recent days.