New COVID-19 modelling warns of possible third wave

Variant strains could spread dramatically if public health measures are lifted

Published Feb 11, 2021 • Last updated Feb 12, 2021 • 1 minute read

This handout file illustration image obtained Feb. 27, 2020 courtesy of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and created at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows the coronavirus, COVID-19. Photo by HANDOUT /Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

New Ontario COVID-19 modelling calls for an “aggressive vaccination” program and adherence to stay-at-home orders to avoid a third wave and lockdown.

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The modelling released Thursday shows a declining numbers of cases, testing positivity and hospitalizations and fewer daily deaths in long-term-care (LTC) homes.

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Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the province’s COVID-19 science table, said the numbers are generally improving but more contagious variants present a new and growing threat.

“If the B.1.1.7 variant behaves as it did in the United Kingdom, cases will start to grow here again in late February or early March,” Brown said. “That is, unless we can limit the spread through public health measures.”

These more contagious and possibly more lethal variants are spreading and will “likely” increase the number of cases by late February and hospitalizations by as early as the second week of March, the modelling shows.

Under one scenario, Ontario would see 5,000 to 6,000 cases a day by late March, putting enormous pressure on the province’s hospitals, he said.

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The second wave of the coronavirus has already claimed 900 residents and three staff members of long-term-care (LTC) homes since the beginning of January, he said.

Even with a finely-tuned vaccination schedule, there could be hundreds more ICU admissions and 400 to 500 additional deaths, Brown said.

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Although intensive care admissions have flattened for the moment, a backlog in other hospital services is increasing, public health officials say.

“Some key mental health indicators are unchanged,” the public health documents state. “However, important measures such as emergency department admissions, opioid deaths and care for eating disorders are worsening.”

aartuso@postmedia.com

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