Russia brushes aside new Trump deadline for a truce in Ukraine

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(Bloomberg) — The Kremlin said it “took note” of Donald Trump’s threat to sharply curtail a deadline for Vladimir Putin to halt his war in Ukraine, though it made clear the Russian president is unlikely to change course.

“I would like to avoid making any judgments” about Trump’s statement, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday. Russia is continuing the war and is also committed to resolving the conflict “and to ensure our interests in the course of this settlement,” he said.

Trump threatened Monday to impose secondary sanctions within 10-12 days on countries buying Russian exports including energy unless Putin accepts a ceasefire, instead of the 50 days he announced earlier this month. “There’s no reason to wait. If you know what the answer is,” he said.

The US president has voiced mounting frustration at Putin’s refusal to agree to a truce in Ukraine to allow for peace talks, after he returned to the White House in January on a campaign pledge to swiftly end the war that’s now in its fourth year. Six phone calls between the two leaders have produced little progress and intensifying Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks have added to US perceptions that Putin is intent on continuing the invasion.

“Putin isn’t guided by what Trump expects from him and isn’t afraid of new sanctions,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “Putin is convinced there’s nothing left but a military conflict and it’s necessary to double down on military efforts until Ukraine collapses and slowly begins to slide into the hands of Russia.”

At the same time, there’s skepticism in Moscow that Trump will make good on his threat, having repeatedly delayed action against Putin in the past. Ukraine and European leaders thought they had Trump’s backing in May for an ultimatum demanding Putin accept an immediate ceasefire ahead of negotiations, only for the US leader to back away when Putin offered talks without a truce.

Trump in July declared he was preparing a “major statement” on Russia. That turned out to be his announcement of the 50-day deadline for Putin to agree to a ceasefire, something Moscow interpreted as a window allowing its military to intensify efforts to seize more territory in Ukraine at the height of the summer fighting season.

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While maintaining relations with Trump is important for Putin, the Russian leader “has no desire to stop, and even more so under pressure,” said Moscow-based political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov.

Markets responded more nervously. The ruble continued to weaken on Tuesday, hovering around 82 per dollar in Moscow, after it declined by nearly 3% in the wake of Trump’s remarks to the lowest since mid-May.

Oil prices climbed, amid concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil supplies or increased costs from rerouted flows. The Brent benchmark was trading above $70 a barrel following a 2.3% increase in the previous session, the biggest in two weeks.

Russia is a top-three global oil producer after the US and Saudi Arabia, exporting more than 3 million barrels a day by sea alone, and supplies crude to such major consumers as India and China. Any significant disruptions in Russian flows in the near future would require a ramp-up in supplies from other major producers and rerouting of existing barrels, just as the global market remains tight amid robust summer demand.

Peskov said there are no plans for a meeting between Putin and Trump. The US president told reporters in Scotland on Monday that he was “not so interested in talking any more” to Putin because past conversations were followed by Russian attacks that killed people in Ukraine.

Putin “hoped there would be a normal conversation with Trump, where it would be possible to explain” Russia’s position, according to Stanovaya. Now he sees “no alternative” to continuing the invasion even as Russian society is tired of the war and the economy faces growing strains, she said.

Russia’s response “to Trump’s ultimatum will be the same as it has been to all ultimatums for the past 500 years,” Sergei Markov, a Moscow-based political consultant close to the Kremlin, said on Telegram. “Get lost! Go to hell!”