CHARLEBOIS: Canada got fatter since the pandemic. Pharma noticed.

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A new study published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal (CMAJ) confirms what many suspected: obesity rates in Canada have surged since the onset of the pandemic. Prior to 2020, the trend was gradual. But since April of that year, the pace has quickened — and now, one in three Canadian adults lives with obesity.

This shift carries serious implications. Obesity increases the risk of Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and certain forms of cancer. As the numbers climb, we must broaden the conversation: medical care is essential, yes — but so is consistent access to nutritious, affordable food.

More troubling still is the demographic pattern: women and young adults — two groups historically less affected — are now seeing sharper increases. Pandemic-era stress, social isolation, disrupted routines, and increased sedentariness all played a role. So did a noticeable shift in dietary habits: more ultra-processed food, more snacking, and fewer structured, balanced meals.

Then came the inflation shock of 2022, fueled in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Soaring food prices placed household budgets under strain, making healthier options even less attainable. When nutritious food becomes unaffordable, poorer dietary choices follow — not out of neglect, but necessity.

In this context, the conventional public health refrain — “eat better, move more” — no longer suffices. The environment must be redesigned to support healthy choices, rather than simply shaming those who can’t afford them.

For food companies, the situation is precarious. On the one hand, many are reformulating their products and investing in “healthier” lines. On the other, long-standing brands are starting to lose their appeal. The case of Kellanova (formerly Kellogg) is instructive: legacy products like Pringles, Cheez-It, Pop-Tarts, and Eggo won’t remain viable without significant recipe overhauls. Canadian consumers are increasingly demanding simplicity in ingredients, transparency in marketing, and at least a minimal level of nutritional credibility — even for indulgent snacks.

Kraft Heinz appears to be adapting by splitting its portfolio, positioning healthier or better-performing brands for growth, while shedding those unable to evolve. The health shift is no longer optional — it’s an economic imperative.

But the core issue goes beyond products — it’s about how the food industry markets them. For decades, food companies have thrived on impulse: eye-catching packaging, end-cap displays, catchy slogans, and novelty. That model is now under pressure. The CMAJ study suggests that impulsive, emotion-driven consumption is contributing to rising obesity rates. Canadians are signalling a desire to regain control — to plan meals, read labels, and make informed choices. This requires a shift from impulse marketing to intent-based marketing — a foundational change in how food is positioned and sold.

Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical industry is rapidly filling the void. In 2023, roughly one million Canadians were prescribed GLP-1 agonists such as Ozempic — drugs developed for diabetes but now widely used for weight loss. That number is expected to double by 2030. These treatments aren’t cheap: public drug plans have already covered more than $660 million for Ozempic alone. This illustrates a sobering reality — modern medicine is now picking up the slack where our food environment has failed.

This isn’t just a public health issue. It’s a market signal. If Canada doesn’t rethink how it produces, processes, promotes, and retails food, pharmacies — not grocery stores — will become our primary source of “dietary intervention.” And the costs, both human and fiscal, will be considerable.

— Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is the Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast.