CHARLEBOIS: Egg prices are cracking under pressure

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The price of eggs in the United States is soaring. In some states, a dozen eggs now retail for over $11, among the highest prices ever recorded. The ongoing avian flu outbreak is wreaking havoc, with the U.S. having culled more than 10% of its laying hen flock in recent months.

With supplies dwindling, consumers are scrambling — no pun intended — to find affordable eggs. The situation appears increasingly dire.

In Canada, the landscape is different, though still concerning. Over the past 12 months, egg prices have risen by an average of 11% to 12% nationwide. Recently, finding a dozen Grade “A” large eggs for under $5 has become difficult in several provinces. Since January, some regions have experienced price hikes of up to 10%. The avian flu is also a concern here, though its impact has been more contained. Canada’s Food Price Report 2025 had already anticipated this, citing avian flu as a key factor in the rising cost of both chicken and eggs.

British Columbia is the only province currently experiencing supply shortages. Canada has culled approximately 14.5 million chickens during this avian flu cycle, with more than 80% of them in B.C. Ontario ranks a distant second, though the outbreak there appears under control for now.

Canada’s egg market is structurally different from that of the United States, and that distinction is playing a role in stabilizing supply and price fluctuations. One key factor is geography. Canada’s vast landmass allows for greater dispersion of poultry farms, making it more difficult for the virus to spread rapidly.

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Secondly, supply management — Canada’s quota-based system that regulates production — has played a stabilizing role. Unlike the U.S. model, which is more exposed to market volatility, Canada’s collaborative supply management framework facilitates the rapid sharing of critical information. When sick or dead birds are identified, industry stakeholders act quickly to mitigate biosecurity risks. It is difficult to quantify the exact impact of this system on stabilizing prices, but the evidence suggests it has helped prevent more severe disruptions.

For example, Alberta is currently supplying eggs to British Columbia to offset shortages — an example of the flexibility within Canada’s egg supply system, which is far more adaptable than other supply-managed sectors such as dairy.

That said, egg prices in Canada will continue to rise, but at nowhere near the rates seen in the United States. While U.S. consumers have seen price hikes of 60%, 80%, or even 100%, Canada is expected to experience a more moderate increase of up to 6% nationally this year. British Columbia, given its supply challenges, could see increases closer to 15%.

Despite these challenges, eggs remain one of the most affordable and efficient sources of animal protein. In the U.S., some restaurant chains — such as Waffle House — have already introduced egg surcharges to offset rising costs. No such reports have emerged in Canada yet.

However, with the GST Holiday ending this week, some restaurants may adjust prices subtly without much notice. When fiscal policy shifts in ways that quietly impact consumer costs, it’s a reminder that the true burden of inflation often extends beyond the grocery store.

Egg prices are rising on both sides of the border, but Canada’s supply management system, industry coordination, and geographic advantages have helped shield consumers from the worst of the price shocks seen in the United States. While affordability remains a concern, the current trajectory suggests that Canadian households will continue to fare better than their American counterparts in navigating this latest wave of food inflation.

— Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is the Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast.