CHARLEBOIS: Why depopulation is the food industry's silent crisis

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It’s difficult to argue that climate change isn’t the most pressing threat to our agri-food sector. Farmers, processors, distributors, retailers, and transporters have all been forced to adapt in real time to extreme weather events, shifting growing seasons, and volatile conditions. From droughts to floods to wildfires, climate change has tested the resilience of every link in the food supply chain.

Yet, for all the challenges the sector has faced — and will continue to face — due to climate pressures, it has managed to cope reasonably well. Investments in technology, new crop varieties, smarter logistics, and infrastructure upgrades have helped absorb many of the shocks. But there is another looming threat — quieter, slower, and far more difficult to reverse — that few in the industry appear prepared for: depopulation.

At its core, the food industry is built on one assumption: That there will always be more mouths to feed. Growth in population has long been a proxy for market growth. The logic is simple — more people mean more demand for calories, more diversity in food preferences, and more spending across the value chain. Many strategies across the sector are driven by the idea of expanding “stomach share” — a concept that assumes a continually expanding consumer base.

But what happens when that base begins to shrink?

More than 60 countries around the world are already experiencing population decline, and that number is expected to exceed 100 within the next 25 years. Fertility rates are falling below replacement levels across much of Europe, East Asia, and even parts of Latin America. Japan, Italy, South Korea, Bulgaria, and many others are already seeing their populations shrink year over year. Aging populations and lower birth rates are creating labour shortages, weakening tax bases, and reshaping national economies.

Even countries like Canada and Australia, which have so far used immigration to offset domestic fertility declines, will not be able to avoid the broader demographic shift forever. Immigration policies may adjust, and population levels may stabilize temporarily, but the long-term trend is clear: Global population growth is slowing, and in many places, reversing.

While the world has historically worried about overpopulation and the stress it would place on food systems, the more pressing concern now may be how to sustain food systems with fewer people to feed and fewer workers to produce food. For decades, global hunger has been a function not of insufficient supply, but of poor distribution and localized production failures. The fear of “not enough food” was always more political than agricultural.

But in a world of declining population, the question flips: How do we maintain a vibrant, efficient and innovative food economy when demand begins to shrink?

Canada’s situation underscores this dilemma. While we are not yet in population decline, our fertility rate continues to drop. Without robust immigration, our population would already be contracting. And although the public discourse remains focused on rising food prices and access to affordable groceries, a deeper, more structural issue is emerging — nutritional insecurity.

In 2024, one in eight Canadian households experienced food insecurity, and that number is likely an undercount. Food insecurity is associated not only with hunger but also with poor diet quality, reduced access to fresh and nutritious food, and broader health consequences. More Canadians than ever may be meeting their caloric needs but are failing to meet their nutritional ones.

This brings us to a critical but often overlooked issue: Disease-related malnutrition. This condition affects individuals of all ages and is deeply intertwined with both chronic illness and food insecurity. It is estimated that up to one in three Canadian children and one in two adults admitted to hospital are already malnourished upon arrival. Disease can lead to malnutrition, and malnutrition can exacerbate disease, creating a costly and dangerous feedback loop.

This challenge is only growing. As populations age and chronic illnesses become more prevalent, the demand for nutritional care — not just food — will intensify. Malnutrition is not just a clinical issue — it is a systemic one, reflecting broader failures in how we view, measure, and address food insecurity.

So what does this mean for the food sector?

It means we can no longer rely solely on volume. The industry must pivot from selling calories to delivering nutrition, quality and personalized value. As the population plateaus — or declines — success will depend on a deeper understanding of demographic shifts, health trends, and evolving consumer expectations. We must recognize the increasingly heterogeneous nature of the market. A one-size-fits-all approach will no longer be sufficient. Growth will come not from quantity, but from innovation, specialization and nutrition-forward offerings.

Public policy will also need to evolve. The current focus on food affordability and access must expand to include nutrition security — a concept that emphasizes consistent access to food that promotes health and prevents disease. This is not just a semantic shift — it reflects a deeper understanding of what a modern food system must deliver.

The transition from a growth-centric model to a resilience- and quality-focused one won’t be easy. But if we fail to adapt, we risk building a food system that is increasingly out of sync with the demographic and nutritional realities of our time. The future of food will not be measured in tonnes — it will be measured in impact per person.

— Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is the Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is currently a visiting scholar at McGill University in Montreal.