KARKI: Trump's gamble in Iran a high-stakes play

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The United States has entered Israel’s war against Iran, causing panic and world war fears amid the Iran-Israel conflict. Donald Trump on Saturday announced that the U.S. had attacked three nuclear sites in Iran, directly joining Israel ’s effort to destroy the country’s nuclear program. He warned he could go after more targets if Iran doesn’t agree to a diplomatic solution over its nuclear program.

Now with a ceasefire in place, the situation is shrouded with uncertainty.

For the U.S., it was a risky gambit amid Iran’s threat of retaliation that could spark a wider regional conflict. Iran had warned of reprisals if the United States intervened in the conflict with Israel. There is a high risk that this war could get out of control.

A U.S. attack on Iran risks drawing America into a quagmire even more challenging than the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, derailing diplomatic efforts, and sparking a wider war that could engulf the region and beyond. Trump’s “negotiate or else” message might sound tough, but it’s a spark in a room full of dynamite.

A U.S. military attack on Iran would have far-reaching consequences, affecting geopolitics, energy markets, regional stability, and global security. Iran could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of global oil passes), leading to a massive spike in oil prices. The risk of a supply disruption continues to grow after the U.S. attack.

Iran may also consider closing the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic waterway vital to global oil trade and the potential closure would risk triggering a global energy crisis. Iran could also retaliate against U.S. military bases or activate proxy forces, like the Houthis in Yemen, to disrupt trade routes or damage oil infrastructure, which would have ripple effects globally.

“Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities had been “completely and totally obliterated” after U.S. warplanes carried out strikes on three nuclear sites in the country,” Trump said. Buried under a mountain and protected by anti-aircraft batteries, the Fordo nuclear fuel enrichment plant was believed to be beyond the limit of Israeli airstrikes. It can be carried out by only American B-2 stealth bombers. Trump boasted on Truth Social that “a full payload of BOMBS was dropped,” claiming the sites were “completely obliterated.” Iranian officials confirmed the attacks but insisted their nuclear program would persist, a defiant signal that retaliation is likely.

If these strikes truly cripple Iran’s ability to enrich uranium, they could delay or destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities and prospects in the future. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who’s been pushing for this outcome for decades, argues that a nuclear-free Iran would lower the risk of a catastrophic arms race in the region. A stable Middle East, with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states no longer fearing an Iranian bomb, could foster economic growth and even peace deals.

But Iran is a tougher nut to crack. It is unlikely that military action will be so conclusive. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned of “irreparable consequences” for U.S. intervention, and Tehran could strike U.S. bases, disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, or unleash terror attacks globally. Iran may not be able to sustain a long war with the U.S. but it won’t be easy for Washington either.

Trump’s strikes could torpedo delicate Gulf-led diplomacy. Saudi Arabia, wary of war’s fallout, recently urged Iran to negotiate with Trump to avoid further escalation. By bombing now, Trump risks alienating allies who prefer talk over tanks. As a result of Trump’s decision to end his own diplomatic efforts, it will be much more difficult to reach an agreement in the medium and long run.

The U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan cost trillions, killed thousands of Americans, and bred chaos that still festers. Iran could be worse — a drawn-out slog with no clear victory, draining resources while China and Russia watch gleefully. Trump’s own campaign promised to avoid “forever wars,” yet here he is, rolling the dice at Israel’s urging.

Trump has made a move by attacking Iran. But he is unaware where it goes and it is not entirely within his control. As the world holds its breath, one thing’s clear: Trump’s ultimatum has upped the ante, and there’s no folding now. The question is whether he’s bluffing — or ready to go all-in on a bet that could redefine the 21st century. Let’s hope he’s got an ace up his sleeve, because the stakes couldn’t be higher.

— Brabim Karki is a Nepal-based businessman, author and columnist who writes on international affairs. He is the chairman of Mero Tribune media. His X handle is @brabim7.