KINSELLA: 10 reasons Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives could win next election
Pierre Poilievre could win, so could Mark Carney – but the wild card is Donald Trump, who may tip the balance one way or the other
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Justin Trudeau – finally, blessedly – is gone.
Mark Carney, the charisma-free zone who takes showers in three-piece suits, is the Selected Prime Minister. The polls suggest he could soon become the Elected Prime Minister.
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KINSELLA: 10 reasons Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives could win next election Back to video
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So, is Pierre Poilievre toast? Could he still win?
No, he’s not toast. Yes, he could still win, for 10 reasons.
1. Poilievre has lots of money: In 2024, his Conservatives raised $41.8 million. That’s just about double what the Liberals and the New Democrats raised – put together. The year before, 2022, Poilievre had another record-smashing year, raising $35 million – more than doubling what the Liberals raised. Now, money doesn’t always guarantee wins – recall the fates of billionaires like Ross Perot and Pete DuPont, for example – but the absence of money always guarantees defeats. Money buys ads.
2. Poilievre has organizational strength: Money alone doesn’t win elections – people do. And, right now, Poilievre has many more candidates nominated than his opponents. And, critically, he has a Tory-blue army on the ground, from sea to sea to sea. The Liberals, meanwhile, have entire ridings that exist in name only – they are effectively political ghost towns. To win, you need people to knock on doors, put up signs, and get out the vote. Poilievre has that.
3. Poilievre has a disciplined team: In 2015, Stephen Harper lost because of lack of discipline – substituting a focus on the economy for scaremongering about veils. His successors lost, in 2019 and 2021, because of lack of message discipline, too – Erin O’Toole embracing a carbon tax, Andrew Scheer allying himself with social conservative causes. This time around, Poilievre and his team have run a much tighter ship – there have been no big verbal missteps about abortion, equal marriage or other policy Vietnams. And voters have noticed.
4. Poilievre sticks to his key messages: When hunting bear, the legendary Romeo LeBlanc once said to this writer, don’t get distracted by rabbit tracks. Poilievre didn’t and doesn’t. After becoming the Conservative Party Leader in 2022, the Ottawa-area MP maintained a laser-like focus on pocketbook issues, and mostly stayed away from everything else. The top issue for voters was cost-of-living, too. It worked.
5. Poilievre dropped the losers: The Ottawa occupiers and anti-vaxxers; the World Economic Forum conspiracy theorists; the social conservative troglodytes – initially, they all thought they had Pierre Poilievre fully onside. Not long after he became Conservative Leader, Poilievre – having gotten what he needed out of those constituencies – started quietly moving away from Team Crazy. He’s now completed his butterfly-like policy metamorphosis into a traditional Stephen Harper-style Tory leader.
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6. Poilievre has political experience: And Mark Carney doesn’t. Now, newcomers like Carney like to knock “professional politicians” like Poilievre – but that’s only because they lack political experience, and it shows. Donald Trump isn’t a professional politician, either. And how’s that working out for everybody? Not so good, eh?
7. Poilievre is better on his feet than Carney: Poilievre has a killer instinct and knows how to swiftly go for the political jugular. Mark Carney, the phlegmatic, plodding banker, wouldn’t know a political street fight if he was dropped into the middle of one. This will become a big, big problem for Carney during the televised leaders’ debates, when you can reasonably anticipate the Tory leader will leave the Grit leader in a bloody heap on the TV studio floor. It won’t be pretty. It matters.
8. Poilievre has no albatross like Trudeau: True, the aforementioned Trump has become one for Poilievre – but Poilievre hasn’t hesitated lately to bash Trump. Mark Carney can’t do that with Justin Trudeau, whom he was advising for years. For Carney, instead, the Trudeau albatross is a decade of documented scandal and slip-ups that he will be called upon to defend.
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9. Poilievre is still competitive: The big 30-point Conservative lead at the start of 2025 is gone, baby, gone – true. Despite that, the Tory leader remains competitive – and most seat models still show he is more likely to win a majority. His vote is committed to him (see donations, above) and much more likely to come out on election day.
10. Poilievre represents change: Mark Carney is the new kid on the political block, yes. He is a fresh face, yes. But he still leads a tired, old government – one that has been there long past its best-before date. And that’s not all – 2024 was the worst year for incumbents in the history of modern politics. For the Liberals, the incumbents, that remains a problem that can’t be dismissed. The “change” option still belongs to Poilievre.
Pierre Poilievre could win. So could Mark Carney. It’s that close.
The wild card? Donald Trump – he, ultimately, is going to tip the balance one way or the other.
Right now, he’s tipping it towards the Liberals.
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