KINSELLA: Polls suggest Mark Carney doing a fine job as PM

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How is Mark Carney doing?

The polls suggest he’s doing just fine.

Here’s a summary:

– Carney’s Liberals are ahead by an astonishing 23 points in Ontario and 27 points in Quebec, says the aggregator Polling Canada

– Nanos gives the Grits an 11-point lead over the Tories, and a 32-point lead over the NDP, and says that Carney more than doubles (51%) Poilievre (23%) for preferred Prime Minister

– A Polling Canada seat projection suggests that all means 196 seats for Carney and only 121 for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives

– Angus Reid Institute says almost 60% of the country approve of Carney’s performance

It’s Summertime, Tories and Dippers will say. No one is paying attention to Ottawa, they’ll insist. And there’s some truth to that.

Carney is still in his honeymoon, they’ll also claim. It’s early days. He hasn’t been tested.

Except: Mark Carney has been tested. He has. And, on multiple files – particularly those involving international affairs – he hasn’t met the standard he’s set for himself.

Canadians are still giving him the benefit of the doubt, however. Overwhelmingly, they still approve of his performance.

Consider: Carney clearly believed he could craft a trade deal with Donald Trump – and avoid Trump’s tariffs. He dispatched his most-senior, most-trusted advisors – elected and not – to Washington, for weeks, to hammer out a deal. He, they, failed. They came home with their tails between their legs.

Some – including this writer – believe that trying to reach an agreement with Trump was always a fool’s errand. The U.S. President passionately believes in tariffs, and no amount of politesse and cajoling is ever going to change that. It was surprising that Carney ever thought he could.

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Another Carney misstep, and again on the foreign policy front: recognizing Palestine. A few days ago, the Liberal Prime Minister appeared before the Press Gallery and insisted he had secured the agreement of the Palestine Authority (PA) to hold general elections in 2026, in which Hamas would play no part.

It was the stuff of utter fantasy. The PA is an undemocratic, corrupt farce, one that doesn’t have the power or the wherewithal to get Hamas – or the PFLP, or Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or anyone, really – to do anything. But Carney stood before the assembled media and insisted that the PA would deliver.

As his PMO said: “Prime Minister Carney welcomed President Abbas’ commitment to these reforms.”

There will be no reforms. There will be no general elections. Hamas will not be removed from power anytime soon. And a two-state solution? It ended on Oct. 7, 2023.

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But Canadians seemingly don’t care about the reality on the ground, or have boundless faith in Carney’s approach. Fully half of the country, says Leger, believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

Trade with Mexico? As with the other international initiatives, a familiar pattern is seen: lots of sizzle, but not much steak. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand travelled to Mexico City to meet President Claudia Sheinbaum to boost economic ties.

But Sheinbaum said there was “no need” for a separate trade deal with Canada.

Meanwhile, Mexico – unlike Canada – had been given a months-long exemption from Trump tariffs.

It’s a depressing downward cycle –  many promises from Mark Carney about our relationship with the rest of the world but not much in the way of results.

The Prime Minister clearly isn’t fussed. His two main opponents are effectively leaderless, the House of Commons is recessed, and he’s riding high in the polls.

For now, he’s got nothing to worry about.