LILLEY: Latest poll good for Ford, painful for Stiles and Crombie

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Doug Ford is more popular with voters now than he was two years ago.

That’s if you believe the latest poll, which doesn’t come from the Sun or Postmedia but from Abacus Data and the Toronto Star.

The latest survey of political opinion shows Ford and his PC Party would take 44% of the popular vote if an election was held today. While Ford should be happy with the results, they should prompt some soul searching for the opposition parties.

Abacus pegs the Ontario Liberals under Bonnie Crombie at 26% support, a full 18 points back of Ford. The NDP, which is actually the official opposition and has the second most seats, has the support of just 19% of the electorate.

Compared to the 2022 election, Ford’s PCs are up three points, the Liberals are up two points and the NDP are down five points.

Given all the negative media attention Ford receives, all the times his policy positions have been called controversial, you might think his popularity would be sinking. Instead, voters across Ontario are looking at what Ford is doing and giving a nod of approval.

This is completely detached from the rending of garments and gnashing of teeth we see in much of the media.

Ontario Place, the Science Centre, beer and wine in corner stores, the LCBO strike, and allowing private cataract surgery and MRI scans paid for with your health card are some of the stories that have been used to portray Ford as being offside the Ontario public.

In reality, it seems he’s right where he needs to be.

Marit Stiles has the most to worry about in these polling numbers. The NDP received 24% of the popular vote in the 2022 election. While that was the same percentage as the Liberals, the NDP took 31 seats while the Liberals took just eight.

That was enough for the NDP to retain status as the official opposition, even though they lost seven seats compared to the 2018 election.

Stiles has never been able to breakthrough since taking over the leadership of the NDP and becoming opposition leader in February 2023. Given the resources at the party’s disposal in terms of budget and staff provided by the legislature given their official opposition status, they should be well ahead of the Liberals.

Instead of using their position to try and grow their base of support, the NDP have too often looked inward. The party regularly uses their time in question period to press on issues that are important to the leadership of the province’s public sector unions but not relatable to the average voter.

As long as the NDP chooses to act as the official lobbying firm of public sector union bosses, they won’t grow their voter support.

Crombie and the Liberals should also be worried by these polling results.

Sure, the party is now polling two points higher than what they received in the last election, but the NDP is down five points and the Liberals didn’t scoop it all up. Neither have they dented Ford’s voter support, which is what they must do if they want to have a shot at forming government.

Despite Crombie saying repeatedly that she is more of a centrist Liberal, she hasn’t shown that.

Time and again, the messaging coming from Crombie and Stiles is identical. It’s hard to differentiate yourself from your opponent if you are saying the same thing.

Being opposed to everything Ford does just for the sake of opposing without offering a realistic alternative won’t win the hearts and minds of voters.

Until one of these parties and leaders starts taking on Ford in a way that resonates with voters, until they start speaking about issues that matter to voters, there won’t be a real change in this polling.

That suits Doug Ford just fine.

blilley@postmedia.com