LILLEY: Opposition leaders could benefit if Premier Ford doesn't call early vote

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Doug Ford’s decision to shelve the idea of taking Ontario into an early election doesn’t come without risk for the province’s 26th premier. The main risk is that one of his opponents, specifically Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, might get her act together and become a real threat if an election happens later.

Ontario’s next election is scheduled for June 2026, but since last spring, there has been speculation that Ford could call an early election. That idea, supported by some of his closest political advisors, appears to be off the table for now.

Ford has never been fully sold on the idea of an early election, neither has he ruled it out, though. Instead, he has toyed with an early vote in public to keep the opposition New Democrats and Liberals on their toes.

Since last summer, both parties have been putting election preparations into high gear.

Both parties have sped up candidate recruitment and many candidates are already nominated. Fundraising attempts have kicked into high gear as well, with both opposition parties trying to catch up, in vain, with the well-financed PC Party.

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The NDP was so sure of an early election that they cancelled their party convention, which had been scheduled for March.

With all of the uncertainty in Ottawa these days – including a leadership crisis in the governing Liberal Party and Trump’s threats of tariffs on all Canadian exports to the United States – Ford has really cooled on the idea of an early election. At a time when he is publicly calling for stability and putting forth the premiers as the leadership the country needs at the moment, Ford now views the idea of going early as a threat.

According to those with inside knowledge, the premier is concerned about looking opportunistic if he calls a campaign when there is such a leadership vacuum at the federal level.

The threat of a federal vote also complicates things.

By putting off the election call, Ford may be giving NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Crombie a huge gift – time. Both parties and leaders are already much further along in their election preparedness than they otherwise would be, and having more time to prepare will only make them strong.

Crombie is already out testing policy ideas that are designed to tap into voters who may have voted Liberal in the past but have sided with Ford and the PCs in the last two elections.

In November, Crombie announced that a Liberal government under her leadership would remove the HST from home heating and hydro bills. She also promised to drop the middle-class provincial income tax rate from 9.15% to 7.15%, a move that would save someone earning $75,000 annually $1,500 in tax savings.

Later, she announced a plan to expand access to family doctors and to make buying a home more affordable. The merits of these programs and policies can be debated, but right now, they show a shift away from Ontario’s Liberal Party trying to win power by becoming more like the NDP.

“I’m a different kind of Liberal,” Crombie said recently during an informal chat at a downtown Toronto cafe.

Perhaps, and if she is, then she could pose a threat to Ford down the road, but not yet. A year after winning the Liberal leadership, her party remains stuck with voter support in the 24-27% range while Ford and his PC Party are regularly polling above 40% voter support, higher than what they took in the 2022 election.

If an election were held today in Ontario, there is no doubt that Doug Ford would be elected to a third healthy majority government. That was part of the appeal of going early, taking advantage of the opposition not being ready.

Until the federal political scene and the threats from Washington are dealt with, the idea that Ford will go early is off the table. That gives Crombie, and Stiles — if the NDP can get organized — time to improve their chances.