LILLEY: Doug Ford's gamble paid off in a third majority PC government

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Doug Ford took a gamble on calling an early election and it paid off.

Despite criticism from the opposition parties that he had called an unnecessary and self-serving election — both of those claims are true — the voters who decided to show up rewarded Ford and his PC Party with his third majority government.

As of writing, PC candidates were elected or leading in 79 ridings, the NDP in 24, the Liberals in 13, Greens in two, with one riding going independent. There were also several ridings not reporting any results as polling stations remained open.

Ford had asked voters to give him an even stronger mandate to help him fight U.S. President Donald Trump. Whether that happens remained to be seen as votes were tallied late Thursday night, but clearly, the PC’s won the election.

As for the timing and messaging from the campaigns, Ford and his team read the mood of the province correctly in framing this election as a referendum on who is best positioned to “protect Ontario” and stand up to Trump.

It doesn’t matter that as premier, there is little Ford can actually do in dealing with a foreign government, voters liked his message. On Thursday night, he pledged again to protect the jobs and companies here in Ontario threatened by Trump’s tariffs.

With the election out of the way, expect Ford to get to work quickly with a swearing-in ceremony, and a cabinet announced before the end of March. Any budget plans will depend on what Donald Trump actually does.

Trump has proposed several different types of tariffs and at times it has appeared that even he gets them confused.

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He’s threatened 25% tariffs on all Canadian exports to the United States unless measures are taken on the border regarding fentanyl and illegal immigration. The federal and various provincial government’s have made moves to strengthen the border but it’s unclear if they are enough to avoid the president’s March 4 deadline.

Trump also also promised 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum by March 12 and sector by sector tariffs by April 2. It’s unclear if some of these tariffs cancel each other out or will be stacked one on top of another, a move that would be crushing.

For the opposition parties, Thursday was less than kind.

The NDP lost seats compared to the 31 they took in the 2022 election. The Liberals regained official party status for the first time since 2018 but leader Bonnie Crombie failed to win her seat.

While it doesn’t look like Ford achieved the larger mandate that he asked for, it is still a third majority government with a similar number of seats to what they had at dissolution. He will also face a very weak opposition as he has since first being elected.

Voter turnout was very low, coming in at around 40%, lower than the 44% in the last election. Perhaps a sign of malaise, the bad weather, or voters deciding that with everything coming out of Washington, they would trust Ford one more time.

As Ontario, and Canada, face uncertainty from the White House, there will be continuity, and perhaps a bit of certainty at Queen’s Park.