LILLEY: Ford is calling an early election because it helps him

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It’s nice that Doug Ford wants to ask voters for permission to perhaps spend tens of billions of dollars in response to the Trump threat, but it isn’t necessary.

Ford won the last election on June 2, 2022, and our next fixed election date isn’t until June 4, 2026, though constitutionally, Ford could even govern until June 2027.

Instead, he’s going to call the election next week.

Why? Because he can and because it is good for him and his party.

Is there some merit in his claim that he needs a mandate from voters? Sure, from an ethical or moral point of view you could argue that deviating greatly from what you promised voters the last time requires asking them for permission or that facing such a grave threat as the Trump tariffs requires the support of voters.

That was definitely the case Ford was making last week. Both NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie had said Ford would have their support to spend in a big way and that there is no need to call an election.

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“They may think it’s OK just to go ahead and throw off our fiscal plan moving forward. I don’t think that,” Ford said. “I think if it comes to it, and we have to spend tens of billions of dollars, we go to the people, let the people decide. It’s their money. It’s not the government’s, that’s where we differ.”

It’s a nice thought and I wish more politicians actually wanted input from voters before embarking on big or radical changes, but the election isn’t needed for what Ford wants to do. The election is only needed because it benefits Ford and not his opponents Stiles and Crombie, as the latest Leger poll for Postmedia shows.

Province wide, Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party has the support of 46% of voters, Crombie’s Liberals are in second place at 22% support and Stiles’ NDP – currently the official opposition – are at 19% support. That includes Ford pulling 38% in metro Toronto to Crombie’s 31% and Stiles’ 18%, but in the GTA and many other parts of the province, Ford and his team are taking more than 50% of the vote.

If these numbers held until election day, Ford would win a bigger majority than he won in 2022, which was 83 of 125 seats.

Opponents of Ford will point to the fact that Ontario has had a fixed election date law since 2005 and say that by going early, Ford is breaking the law, acting illegally. The problem with that is that Ontario’s law, like every other fixed election date law in our Canadian Westminster political system, isn’t worth the paper it is written on.

“Nothing in this section affects the powers of the Lieutenant Governor, including the power to dissolve the Legislature, by proclamation in Her Majesty’s name, when the Lieutenant Governor sees fit,” reads the text passed by the legislature 20 years ago.

The law allows early elections in our system because it has to. A minority government is unlikely to last four years and the structure of our system means a government can decide to go early by advising the Lieutenant Governor that they need a new mandate to deal with the Trump tariff threat.

Far too many politicos point to David Peterson’s decision to go early and then lose the election as proof no one should do that. What they forget is that there were other factors like the economy slowing down and Peterson offering to give up Ontario Senate seats to Quebec.

Jean Chretien defeated Stockwell Day in 2000 and increased his seat count. John Horgan went early in the middle of the pandemic in B.C. in 2020, Justin Trudeau did that in 2021, and Tim Houston went early just a few months ago in Nova Scotia and won big.

If Ford goes early next week, it looks at this point that he too would win big. The only people who could change that are the voters.

It’s up to them.

blilley@postmedia.com