GUNTER: Canada still hasn't seen Carney's promised leadership

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The chances of Canada convincing Donald Trump’s White House to reverse his tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods seems remote. There’s a possibility cases working their way through the U.S. courts will — maybe within the next six to 12 months — find Trump has overstepped his authority to impose tariffs and reverse them.

Who knows, the U.S. Senate may even find its spine and take back much of its Constitutional authority over tariffs.

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It’s also just possible large sections of his MAGA base will turn on Trump as his tariff policies increase inflation and unemployment.

Could happen.

In the meantime, Canada has to make whatever deal it can with Trump while also making itself more resilient against U.S. trade sanctions.

Keep in mind that the Americans’ much-touted deals with the E.U., the U.K. and Japan aren’t really deals at all. There are no documents, the details are sketchy and the two sides in each now disagree over just what each deal contains.

Trump just likes the show of being Mr. Tough Guy, of having other countries’ leaders appear to bow before him and kiss his ring.

It won’t be easy for Canada to get the same kind of “deal” as those other countries. Trump seems to have a special hate on for Canada. And we are being backburnered by the Trump administration. Our concerns are being handled by mid-level officials, not boss-to-boss, despite Prime Minister Mark “Elbows Up” Carney insistence that he knows Trump, knows who to deal with him and is uniquely qualified to reach an agreement.

If we could even just return to Harper-era export levels with the U.S., Canada would be far less vulnerable. Under Stephen Harper’s government, about 75 per cent of our foreign trade was with our southern neighbour. Now, thanks to the Liberals’ complete indifference to all things economic, Ottawa has taken the easy path for the last 10 years until we are reliant on the Americans for 90 per cent of our trade.

They account for around one-quarter of our GDP, while we account for less than three per cent of theirs. That means Canada has a need for a deal, but lacks leverage. So we need to export more to other countries to make us less susceptible to shocks from the U.S.

But given all that, where is the leadership from Carney?

Remember his expansive promises to bring down internal trade barriers and get major projects going that would help us expand our exports around the globe?

Name me one such objective he has checked off to date.

We’re never going to get over our dependence on the U.S., nor should we want to. Theirs is the largest, richest economy in the world and we have primo access to it.

But we do need to make the most of our natural resource potential by opening mines, building pipelines and constructing or expanding ports.

Yet while Carney talks about all those things, his latest “action” on constructing a promised economic corridor came Thursday when he promised Indigenous groups that would have a quasi veto over projects they disliked.

To understand what’s at stake, consider that new figures on the Trans Mountain pipeline, completed just last year, shows it will generate in short order about $13 billion in new income for oil companies and governments.

Imagine if we had two or even three more pipelines for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), plus some major mines for the rare earth minerals currently in such demand.

Yet if Canada has no trade deal with the U.S. (not even a faux one) and years and years more of lengthy negotiations on resource megaprojects, our economy will continue to sputter along.