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GUNTER: Conservatives were unprepared for Trump-Carney ground shift, but it's not too late to get serious

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When Justin Trudeau was leader of the Liberal Party, and Donald Trump was just the obnoxious president Canadians were glad was not their country’s leader, the Conservative Party’s strategy seemed masterful: Do and say as little as possible until an election is called. Leave the Libs alone to self-destruct.

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But now that Mark Carney has replaced Trudeau, and Donald Trump has started an all-out, unprovoked war on Canada’s economy and sovereignty (for reasons known only in the deep recesses of his jumbled mind), Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives’ strategy has imploded.

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Voters in eastern and central Canada have flocked back to the Liberals, apparently unconcerned that the caucus and staffers who brought Canada so much economic and fiscal decline under Trudeau are the very same people now backing Carney.

Nothing except the face of the Liberal party has changed. Not their horrendous economic policy, nor their disastrous government spending trajectory, nor their environmental extremism, their taxes, housing policies that have led to a doubling of home prices and rents in under a decade. Not their defence policy nor their strategy for dealing with rising crime nor their immigration targets.

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Despite all the similarities between the Trudeau Liberals and the Carney Liberals, though, central and eastern Canadians seem to put great faith in the Grits-with-a-new-mask to save us from the Pirate Trump.

Good luck with that. If you think what is needed to shield us from Trump’s 18th-Century economic foolhardiness is more pipelines, higher industrial productivity, lower corporate taxes to spur investment and deregulation to help bring down consumer prices, don’t look to the “new” Liberals for any of that.

Four months ago, the woke, incompetent, smug Liberals were as much as 23 points behind. However, the latest seat-total projections from the polling analysts at 338Canada.com have the Liberals winning a five-seat majority.

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  2. New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney addresses the media after being sworn in at Rideau Hall on March 14, 2025 in Ottawa. Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images
    Lorne Gunter: Trump to blame if Carney and the Liberals win another election

The fault isn’t entirely Trump’s (although he deserves most of the blame). It is also the fact that the Poilievre Conservatives have failed to pivot from the strategy they devised to defeat Trudeau to a newer, grown-up strategy that reassures voters they are every bit as riled up by Trump (and more capable of besting him) than the Liberals.

When Trudeau was Liberal leader, Poilievre didn’t have to distance himself from Canada’s Enemy No. 1, Donald Trump. It was enough to distance himself from Justin Trudeau. So, he didn’t put enough daylight between himself and the U.S. president.

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And the Conservatives didn’t have to give off an air of gravitas befitting a wartime government. Their frat-boy sloganeering was enough to stop the Trudeau Liberals.

Now, though, the cutesy alliteration that dominates their ads — “Carbon tax Carney” and “Just like Justin” — makes them look like sniggering sideline players.

Mark Carney is at least as lefty as Trudeau, but he’s not as fey in his delivery, which makes him look more formidable in some eyes.

Poilievre can be blamed for not responding fast enough to Trump or to Carney’s election. Although it is not too late to get serious.

For instance, Carney has shown himself to be prickly (and vulnerable) on questions about his ethics and the transparency of his investments.

He is not yet an especially skilled campaigner, either.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford can be blamed for some of the federal Conservative fall, too, Ford has given Carney not one but two indirect endorsements — a photo-op breakfast between the two and a commitment to work together with the “very bright” Liberal PM.

The Conservatives have to emphasize Carney’s ethics vulnerability and show how far left he is on a host of issues. Pointing out how cosy he is with Beijing wouldn’t hurt, either.

But the uphill battle to win the next election, expected within six weeks, is now the Conservative’s climb.

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