LILLEY: Mostly, but not completely a show of unity on Trump

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Measured but robust, that is how Prime Minister Justin Trudeau portrayed the response that he and the premiers agreed to in response to the Trump tariff threats. Instead of competing news conferences, Trudeau sat down next to Ontario Premier Doug Ford and most of the premiers to send one message — they are united, kind of.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who attended the news conference virtually, refused to sign a joint communique and instead issued a blistering statement online. Smith said that there was a constructive discussion at the meeting, but she can’t back everything that is being discussed.

“However, federal government officials continue to publicly and privately float the idea of cutting off energy supply to the U.S. and imposing export tariffs on Alberta energy and other products to the United States,” Smith wrote in a statement posted to X.

“Until these threats cease, Alberta will not be able to fully support the federal government’s plan in dealing with the threatened tariffs.”

Smith’s take saw Ford step forward and say everyone needs to put Canada first, not their province.

“I respect that she’s concerned about protecting her energy, and that’s her choice. That is her choice, but I have a little different theory,” Ford said. “Protect your jurisdiction, but country comes first. Canada is a priority.

For his part, Trudeau said that while the whole country must respond, no one part of the country should bear the full burden.

“We will be equitable and fair but we also know we will be resolute,” he said.

What was surprising is that Smith stood alone because Quebec’s Francois Legault and Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe had previously expressed opposition to energy being on the table. Saskatchewan, of course, has oil exports on top of potash, uranium and agricultural goods while Quebec is a major exporter of electricity into the New England states. That’s pure profit for the provincial government which owns Hydro Quebec.

Alberta, though, is in a different position. Oil and gas are Canada’s biggest export to the United States by far. Nothing else comes close. As Smith has pointed out, shutting off those exports would hurt Ontario and Quebec because Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline goes through Michigan before hitting Ontario. That line supplies Ontario and Quebec with an awful lot of energy that is needed and there is no way to shut off supply to Michigan without also shutting off Canada’s two biggest provinces.

Still, Ford has a point in saying that you don’t show your hand when playing poker. While Smith’s position can be understandable, it does weaken the Canadian argument as a whole.

At the end of the day, it isn’t Smith’s decision, though, as both export tariffs and shutting down exports are federal decisions, not provincial ones. Even Doug Ford or Francois Legault stopping electricity exports is actually a decision of the federal government.

Perhaps if the Trudeau government had not spent their entire time in office shutting down other export pipelines like Energy East, Northern Gateway or saying there is case of LNG exports, this concept would be easier for Albertans to swallow.

Right now, the plan from the federal government is to wait and see what the Trump tariff threat looks like.

“It’s too early to know what we will do. We need to know what Mr. Trump will do,” Quebec’s Francois Legault said.

If Trump does impose a 25% across the board tariff on all Canadian exports to the United States though, Canada will not respond in kind. The plan is to start smaller with targeted tariffs and build up the response over time.

That’s a middle ground from the Trudeau government because while Alberta’s Smith wants no retaliation, Ontario’s Ford would like a stronger response.

Bottom line, though, as Legault said, we don’t know what Trump will be doing come Monday and until that is clear, any response is simply guesswork.

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