LILLEY: Only political certainty in Canada right now is uncertainty

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We are now, as Justin Trudeau said in a recently released Liberal Party video, in an election year. The only question remaining is whether the election will be triggered in January, in the spring sometime or if this beleaguered government will survive until October.

Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives clearly want the vote to happen sooner rather than later.

This is the reason they have called a meeting of the Commons Public Accounts Committee. It’s an attempt to have a non-confidence motion placed on the docket on Jan. 27 when Parliament resumes and a vote to presumably defeat the Trudeau Liberals to come Jan. 30.

Of course, none of this may happen.

The government could prorogue or the NDP could once again decide to support the Liberals.

NDP MP Charlie Angus has said publicly that he won’t vote to defeat the Trudeau government and NDP House Leader Peter Julian has cast doubt on the validity of a non-confidence motion coming from a committee, perhaps showing he doesn’t understand Parliament as well as he should.

It’s quite possible that Jagmeet Singh and the NDP could lose their backbone and end up supporting the Liberals again. Singh and his party voted confidence in the Liberals eight different times after “ripping up” his coalition deal.

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Singh only threatened to vote the government down in December after the House had risen for Christmas. That means that his pension was effectively vested and there were no more opportunities to vote them down.

His statement calling for Trudeau’s defeat meant nothing when he said it, and it means nothing until he acts in a way that backs up his words.

As for prorogation, there are Liberals arguing for this to happen so that Trudeau could resign, initiating a race to become the next leader of the Liberal Party and PM. While prorogation is a legitimate parliamentary tool, its function is not so that the Liberal Party can have a leadership race without having to face Parliament and a possible defeat.

If Trudeau went to the Governor General with the express purpose of resigning and protecting the party during a leadership race, Mary Simon would be acting within her rights and duties to reject the request for prorogation. On the other hand, if Trudeau simply arrived at Rideau Hall and asked for the return of Parliament to be pushed back to a later date, she would have few options but to take the advice of the prime minister.

Of course, Trudeau could prorogue without resigning and try to stay on to fight in the next election.

Sure, his party might be at 16% support in the latest poll from Angus Reid — 29 points behind Poilievre’s Conservatives, sitting at 45% support. Yes, his Atlantic, Quebec and Ontario caucuses have all called on him to resign, but that doesn’t mean Trudeau is leaving.

As Canadians were winding down the final hours of 2024, an email fundraising blast from Trudeau went out to Liberal supporters. The language sounded like that of a man who sees himself as having much more to do.

“Now is not the time to give up. It’s the time to be ambitious and to be bold,” Trudeau said.

“Our Liberal team has a serious, positive vision for Canada – and that will always be worth fighting for.”

The frustrating, and the exciting part of all of this for political watchers is that we simply don’t know what is coming in 2025 — or when. Each action sparks a reaction, and things can change at a moment’s notice.

That makes it all the more interesting as we head into this election year. So, stay tuned.

blilley@postmedia.com