LILLEY: Poll finds Poilievre's Conservatives ahead of Liberals in Quebec

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Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are tied for first place among voters in Quebec and ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals?

Ben voyons donc!

It may sound impossible, but the latest Leger poll for Postmedia not only gives Poilievre’s Conservatives a massive lead nationally, but a position they haven’t held in Quebec in decades. According to Leger, the most accurate pollster in the last two elections, the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois are tied at 29% voter support in Quebec with the Liberals behind at 26%.

In the last federal election, the Conservatives took just 19% of the vote and 10 seats; that’s the same number of seats they took in 2006 with 25% of the vote. The Conservative support is most often concentrated in the Quebec City region and places like the Saguenay, but could see them land extra seats if they were to land 29% support and come out ahead of the Liberals.

By comparison, the Liberals took about 34% of the vote in Quebec in the last election and took 35 seats.

Quebec has been a stronghold for Trudeau’s Liberal party since he first won power in 2015. It was Quebec that first turned to him when voters decided to vote out the Stephen Harper Conservatives and as Quebec put support behind Trudeau, left-leaning voters in the rest of the country followed suit.

Nationally, the Leger poll puts the Conservatives at 42% support to 23% for the Liberals and 18% for the NDP. The Conservatives lead in this poll among men and women, in every age bracket and among rural, suburban and even urban voters.

While being tied for first in Quebec is new and noteworthy, the more important result in the poll is the Conservative lead in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. All three regions have been very kind to Trudeau since 2015 and now have turned to the Conservatives.

In Atlantic Canada, where the Trudeau Liberals took 24 of 32 seats in 2021, the Conservatives are now polling at 50% support. In British Columbia, which sent 15 Liberals to Ottawa in the last election, the Conservatives are polling at 46% compared to 23% for the NDP and 20% for the Liberals.

Ontario, home to nearly half the Liberal caucus, is set to go blue in a big way – at least if an election was held now. In 2021, the Conservatives pulled in about 35% of the vote and 37 seats compared to the Liberals, who took about 39% of the vote and 78 seats. Leger now has the Conservatives polling at 42% to the Liberals’ 24% and NDP’s 22%.

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With numbers like that, Poilievre and his team would likely get more than 80 seats in Ontario alone, while also picking up seats in B.C., Atlantic Canada and even Quebec. They already hold every seat in Saskatchewan, but would add a few more in Manitoba and likely pick up one or two of the seats they don’t hold in Alberta.

Few Canadians are satisfied with the Trudeau government anymore with just 27% saying they are satisfied with the government’s performance – and just 4% very satisfied and 23% somewhat satisfied. As for best prime minister, Poilievre is chosen by almost twice as many respondents as Trudeau or NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

Leger also asked voters why they think Trudeau isn’t ready to step aside and just 23% believe his claim that he has more policies he wants to implement. Meanwhile, 47% believe he just likes being prime minister and doesn’t want to leave.

It’s an interesting poll that is in line with the national lead for the Conservatives that several polling firms have shown. What we need to watch for is whether what Leger picked up in Quebec turns into a trend going forward.