LILLEY: Singh breaks up with Trudeau, ends coalition deal

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Breaking up is hard to do, just ask Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau. After two years, five months and 14 days, their political romance that gave us the Axis of Weasels Coalition is no more.

What has to hurt Trudeau even more is that Singh didn’t even break up in person, he didn’t even hold a news conference – he issued a statement.

That’s the political equivalent of getting dumped by text.

Singh released a video on social media announcing the end of the deal, in which he called the Liberals weak, selfish and beholden to corporate interests. In an email sent to the NDP caucus, with warnings not to share with media outlets, the party tried to claim the coalition was incredibly good and incredibly bad for Canadians at the same time.

“No fourth party has ever set the agenda as we have. Millions of Canadians have benefitted as a consequence,” the email states, claiming victory before denouncing the coalition.

“And yet, like so many Canadians, we have been left frustrated and disappointed by Justin Trudeau’s broken promises.”

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There you have it, working with the Liberals was consequential: It delivered for Canadians, it left everyone frustrated and disappointed. If the NDP can’t figure out if their coalition was good, how should the rest of of us evaluate their partnership?

The news, by the way, was broken not by the NDP themselves, but by yours truly on X, before the Trudeau’s PMO was even informed.

It was a bad relationship from the start: It didn’t help either party, and it certainly didn’t help Canadians.

In the last Leger poll released in March 2022, the Liberals were in the lead at 33% support, the Conservatives were in second at 28% and the NDP in third at 22%. In the latest Leger poll for Postmedia — released last week — the Conservatives were at 43%, the Liberals at 25% and the NDP at 15%.

Singh was due to face his own NDP caucus next week at a retreat in Montreal. There have been grumblings about the damage propping up the Liberals has done to the party.

While publicly New Democrats will herald policy moves like the federal dental care and pharmacare, privately they will admit these programs are not what was promised and the bare minimum the Liberals could have done. Pressure within the NDP to leave the deal grew stronger after the Trudeau Liberals imposed binding arbitration to end rail work stoppages.

Even though Singh called that act a line in the sand that couldn’t be crossed, no one believed he would leave because he’d made the threat so often. But when caucus members like Matthew Green, one of the more radical members, started to speak up, the pressure on Singh broke out into the public.

“When it comes to our caucus retreat, there’s going to be some tough conversations around the table about the future of that agreement and about the needs of Canadians in a move forward basis,” Green told The Canadian Press.

The NDP now wants to pivot from being Justin Trudeau’s junior partner to being the giant slayers, ready to take on Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.

“Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed. The Liberals have let people down, they don’t deserve a second chance,” Singh said in a campaign-style ad released on social media.

“There is an even bigger battle ahead, the threat of Pierre Poilievre and Conservative cuts.”

Singh will have a hard time convincing voters that he’s the attack dog to take on Poilievre when he’s been a lapdog for Trudeau during the last couple of years.

The end of the agreement doesn’t mean the coalition will fall apart and Canadians will head to the polls.

Instead, Singh and the NDP will make decisions on a vote-by-vote basis, which could very well see the current government last until October 2025, or perhaps fall when the budget comes forward next spring.