SNOBELEN: Loss and humiliation should spur Poilievre to be better

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Prime Minister Poilievre?

Next week, the good people of Battle River-Crowfoot will elect a new member of Parliament and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) can get back to worrying about the future.

Pierre Poilievre will easily win this election and make his return to the tranquillity of Ottawa. Then, the real battle will begin.

In 2026, Poilievre will face a mandatory leadership review at the CPC national convention in Calgary. Between now and then, Conservative party members will have one overriding question on their minds: Can Poilievre ever be prime minister?

Under Poilievre’s leadership, the Conservatives gained votes and seats in the last election, but despite the unpopularity of Justin Trudeau’s clan and the political naivety of Mark Carney, they fell painfully short of winning government. That election triggered questions about Poilievre’s future.

The stage for Carney’s rise and the Conservatives’ defeat was set when Donald Trump won a second term as president. Trump is the context for everything.

His ability to generate and prosper from chaos is extraordinary, as is his ability to command attention in the era of 24/7 news cycles. Trump elected Carney.

The winds blowing from Washington last January were particularly icy and Canadians felt cold shivers from a former ally now suddenly and inexplicably hostile. Trump clearly wanted to starve Canada first into irrelevance and then into statehood.

By the end of April, many Canadians longed for some sense of stability and, straight from central casting, the Liberals presented a new, much more serious leader. Carney is a safe-looking guy with a black belt in economics and an international reputation. What could be safer?

In contrast, Poilievre is a career politician with a black belt in antagonizing. His ability to get under Trudeau’s skin is legendary. He was the right guy for the wrong time.

So, can Poilievre be the right guy the next time? Probably.

Carney will face some stiff winds over the next few years. Canadians may find that, to quote Helen Keller, “Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. Life is either a daring adventure, or nothing.”

Having given false security a try for a few years, many Canadians may be ready for a daring adventure in the next election. Carney is many good things, but adventurous is not one of them.

Elbows half-up is going to get tiresome. The C.D. Howe Institute reported that the Carney government’s “comprehensive spending review” will look at one-third of expenditures and produce less than one-half the savings required. A couple of years of things only getting a little worse will set the stage for a Poilievre comeback. That is, if he wants to.

Poilievre will have to change if he wants to be the next prime minister. Passion doesn’t have to bleed to zeal. Certain doesn’t need to be strident. And daring doesn’t need to be foolhardy.

Poilievre is a master storyteller, but he refused to tell his story through much of the media in the last election. That isn’t a good strategy; it’s arrogance.

Poilievre needs to keep a sharp wit and willingness to be bold, but lose the attack edge and arrogance. The good news for Conservatives is that Poilievre has been through the humiliation of an election loss. That should make him a little less smart and a lot wiser.