LILLEY: Trudeau seems to be raring for fight when Parliament resumes

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Here’s a warning for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives: Don’t take Justin Trudeau for granted, the prime minister is currently in fighting form.

Trudeau showed up to his cabinet retreat in Halifax on Monday morning and went right into answering questions from the media.

Trudeau was immediately asked about his future as party leader, about the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection loss in June, his sagging polls numbers and whether he should pull a Joe Biden and exit stage left.

“We spent the summer out there talking with Canadians, talking with caucus members, talking with the team about what Canadians are focused on, what Canadians really need and Canadians need support,” Trudeau said.

The PM was smooth, he was unruffled by questions, he wasn’t angry, bitter or dismissive, as we’ve seen all too often. In fact, Trudeau looked like someone who was not only rested from his summer vacation, but in fighting shape for when Parliament returns in September.

Poilievre and the Conservatives are riding high in the polls and have held a double-digit lead over the Trudeau Liberals since September 2023. It may seem like a forgone conclusion that Poilievre will win the next election, but for the Conservatives and their supporters to think nothing will change between now and October 2025 would be foolish.

It’s important in politics to remember that voters are fickle, polls change and campaigns matter.

The underlying fundamentals still aren’t good for Trudeau when you look at the polling, including what the top issues are for voters. A recent Abacus Data poll showed voters were most concerned with the cost of living, housing, immigration and health care.

The Conservatives were leading as the top party to handle those issue on every front but health care, where they were tied with the NDP.

The bad news for the Liberals is they aren’t leading on any issue nor is Trudeau the leader of choice for best PM. In fact, Poilievre leads Trudeau by almost double when it comes to who voters choose as best PM.

Trudeau made some good moves Monday in announcing tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, something Poilievre called for weeks ago. He also said they would try to fix the temporary foreign workers program, which is a mess.

What he didn’t really do was admit it was his mistake and apologize; that’s a move that could have gone a long way.

If Trudeau wants to turn things around, he’d be smart to stop telling Canadians how great the economy is.

“Over the past nine years, we have delivered the strongest economy in the G7,” Trudeau said.

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He went on to say that Canada is the “top place in the world for per capita foreign direct investment” among G20 economies. Those are the types of things that will impress economists and columnists who seem to be members of the economist party.

Those claims will be cold comfort to Canadians who are paying nearly 25% more for groceries than they were three years ago. It won’t help families dealing with higher rent or mortgage payments.

This is one of the advantages that Poilievre has at the moment; he understands that life is more expensive. He isn’t seeking the approval of a far-off international body for his position, he’s reminding Canadians of the reality they face at the grocery store, the gas station or in paying rent or paying off the mortgage.

If Poilievre wants to keep his advantage, he needs to never take Trudeau for granted and speak to Canadians where they are. That may require a tweaking of the “axe the tax” message that has worked so well for him so far.

One thing is clear, though: Trudeau isn’t going anywhere and he’s in a fighting mood, hoping to take on and defeat Poilievre in the next election.