LILLEY: Until Trudeau's future is resolved, nothing else matters

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Justin Trudeau shuffled his cabinet on Friday and Jagmeet Singh said he’s ready to vote the Trudeau government out of office but neither of these events matter.

The only thing that matters right now is whether Justin Trudeau will stay or go from the Prime Minister’s Office.

At a time when Canada is facing the biggest threat to our economy, and sovereignty, in memory, the country is being held hostage by the ego of Justin Trudeau.

Make no mistake, we need new and serious leadership in Ottawa, but that won’t come from Trudeau. Nor will it come from any of the pretenders in his cabinet who have ridden Trudeau’s now damaged coattails for years.

We need an election so that we can change governments.

Some saw the statement Friday morning from NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh as a sign that he had grown a spine. Singh said that the NDP is ready to “put forward a motion of non-confidence in the next sitting of the House of Commons.”

That’s rich coming from a man who has voted confidence in the government eight times since he dramatically ripped up his coalition agreement with Trudeau.

An NDP source tells the Sun that Singh could introduce the non-confidence motion as early as Jan. 27 which could lead to an election in early March. The political speculation about potential election dates or what happens if the government prorogues is endless.

The bottom line is that we don’t know what is going to happen because there are too many unknown variables, and it ultimately comes down to Trudeau and his ego.

If Trudeau doesn’t decide to step down after Christmas and the House of Commons returns on Jan. 27, that doesn’t mean the NDP can bring in a motion and defeat the Liberals then. The government, within certain limits, controls the timing of what are called opposition or supply days – those days where the House votes on an issue of their choosing.

The earliest the NDP is likely to see an opposition day is mid-March but before then the Conservatives will get two opposition days and the Bloc Quebecois one. There is a good chance that the government will time the Conservative opposition days – which will certainly be confidence motions — for the end of February just before the House breaks again, meaning the vote wouldn’t happen until March 17.

If Trudeau allowed those votes to happen, he would certainly lose and we would be looking at a spring election. I’d gladly raise a pint on St. Patrick’s Day to celebrate the defeat of the Trudeau government but that’s only if we get to that point.

Amid all these scenarios, it is difficult to see how we make it all the way to October for an election with Trudeau still as PM and Liberal leader. The government could choose to prorogue and suspend the sitting of the House until later in the spring if Trudeau decides to resign as Liberal leader.

Under the Liberal Party constitution, which they don’t always follow, the party is required to have a four-month leadership race. If Trudeau steps down at the end of January, that means a new leader in May, a quick budget and then a summer campaign that still may not see us vote for a new government until October.

Do you see what I mean about so many unknown variables?

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Trying to determine what will happen is like trying to figure out what Justin Trudeau is thinking — it’s a fool’s game.

As Trudeau’s new cabinet ministers stepped forward to speak to reporters after being sworn in as officers on a sinking ship, they all called for a Team Canada approach, for all elected officials to get behind the prime minister. This is the same PM that polls show Canadians no longer trust to run the country, to deal with Donald Trump and his tariff threats, there is no way that anyone should get behind him.

We don’t need new and useless cabinet ministers — we need a new government with new leadership, a government led by Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.

Trudeau is denying Canadians that due to his own ego and until that is resolved, nothing else really matters.

blilley@postmedia.com