VEZINA: Disruptions on the Horizon report offers scant details

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You may recall a report put out recently by the federal think-tank Policy Horizons Canada listing 35 possible disruptions we could face in the future.

The Disruptions on the Horizon report also provided a chart, known as a risk matrix, with likelihood and consequence values for each one of these possible disruptions on a scale of one to five.

There is no detailed explanation, quantification or qualification to these scores, which would normally discredit the entire document until addressed. There were also some flaws with methodology and how its conclusions were reached.

While the authors of the document said the views of “500 stakeholders, colleagues and foresight experts across the government of Canada and beyond” went into making this document, there were few details regarding what this input was or how it was collected.

It is possible 500 people were sent a list, as in: “Please grade each of these 35 disruptions on a scale of one to five for likelihood and consequence,” lacking any further context, with the results then plugged into a spreadsheet and averaged.

Regardless, the contents of the document suggest the federal government considers this a worthwhile approach to assessing potential future risks to society.

Therefore, if there is enough interest from readers, I will do a follow-up column, or a series of them, on some or all of the risks identified in the Disruptions on the Horizon document. This is to provide greater depth on the issue, as well as some direction on where to go to seek credible information on these topics.

To begin, here is a list of all 35 possible future disruptions identified in the government document, a menu of sorts for readers:

SOCIETAL DISRUPTIONS

Aging population has no support. Artificial intelligence runs wild. Basic needs go unmet. Downward social mobility is the norm. Food is scarce. Men are in crisis. People cannot tell what is true and what is not. Values-based clashes divide society.

ECONOMIC DISRUPTIONS

Biodata is widely monetized. Energy is inaccessible and unreliable. Homemade bioweapons go viral. Household debt reaches a tipping point. Immigrants do not choose Canada. Infrastructure and property are uninsurable. Large economies face public debt crises. People cannot afford to live on their own. Space is commercialized and underregulated. The North experiences an economic boom. Vital natural resources are scarce.

ENVIRONMENTAL DISRUPTIONS

Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse. Emergency response is overwhelmed. Geoengineering takes off. Healthy environments are a human right. Many Canadian regions become uninhabitable.

HEALTH DISRUPTIONS

Antibiotics no longer work. Health-care systems collapse. Mental health is in crisis.

POLITICAL/GEOPOLITICAL DISRUPTIONS

Billionaires run the world. Canadian national unity unravels. Civil war erupts in the United States. Cyberattacks disable critical infrastructure. Democratic systems break down. Indigenous Peoples govern unceded territory. International alliances are in constant flux. World war breaks out.

If a particular topic or topics are of interest to you and you would like me to discuss them, email me at info@prepared.ca. I will also be reading your comments about this column on the Toronto Sun website where my column is published.

For those interested in the more detailed concerns I have with the thinking behind the Disruptions on the Horizon report, they are covered at length in chapter 3, Risk Assessments, of my book Continuity 101: A Hybrid Continuity and Disaster Risk Reduction Approach.

— Vezina is the CEO of Prepared Canada Corp, teaches disaster and emergency management at York University and is the author of Continuity 101. He can be reached at info@prepared.ca.

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