EDITORIAL: Don’t bet on a snap election

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Now that the smoke has cleared, a snap federal election is no nearer today than it was before NDP leader Jagmeet Singh ripped up his deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

The obvious reason is that neither the NDP, nor the Liberals, want a snap election, which according to more than a year of polling, would replace Trudeau’s Liberal minority government with a Conservative majority government led by Pierre Poilievre.

But even if Singh and the NDP were to support a Conservative non-confidence motion when Parliament resumes next week — assuming Trudeau doesn’t prorogue Parliament before then — it wouldn’t automatically force an election.

The Liberals have 154-seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives 119, the NDP 24.

Even if every Conservative and New Democrat MP voted non-confidence in the Liberals, their combined 143 votes would not be enough to defeat the Liberals.

The Bloc Quebecois, with its 32 MPs, would also have to vote in favour of defeating the Liberals, bringing the combined opposition vote to 175 MPs, which is an absolute majority in the current 338-seat House of Commons.

Only in that scenario would a non-confidence vote bring down the Liberals and force an election.

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But BQ leader Yves-Francois Blanchet said this week his party is more interested in winning new concessions for Quebec from the Trudeau government, in return for his party’s support on any non-confidence votes.

Given their current polling numbers in Quebec the Bloc, unlike the Liberals and the NDP, aren’t afraid of forcing a snap election.

But for now they believe they will have more political power by propping up the current Liberal minority government — in return for concessions — rather than forcing an election that would return a Conservative majority government.

In the real world, despite their political break-up last week, the Liberals and NDP are hoping that even in the absence of their supply and confidence agreement, there won’t be an election until the fall of 2025, which would have been the case had their deal held.

Trudeau and the Liberals, barring Trudeau resigning, are hoping that a year from now the economy will have improved to the point where they could win at least a minority government, a Hail Mary strategy that is as desperate as it sounds.