EDITORIAL: Trudeau's climate bill less than it appears
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Given that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s proposed climate legislation has been greeted largely by uncritical praise by our chattering classes, time for a reality check.
There is nothing mandatory in the proposal about actually reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions linked to human-induced climate change.
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The only mandatory part is that future governments will have to announce emission targets in 2035, 2040 and 2045 on how they will reach net zero emissions by 2050.
If they are behind their targets in any of those years leading up to 2050, they must report to Parliament on how they plan to get back on track.
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There’s no penalty if they fail.
The law doesn’t require even that for Trudeau and the Liberals, assuming they remain in power from 2020 to 2030.
That’s because there’s no target for 2025, which was a deliberate omission.
It means the Liberals have given themselves a decade to meet their 2030 target (the same deadline as the previous Stephen Harper Conservative government set), without having to explain in 2025 whether they’re on target and, if not, how they will get there.
Finally, a carbon tax/price doesn’t lower emissions. No one knows how much Trudeau’s carbon tax will lower them.
The purpose of a carbon tax is to set a price on emissions, not determine the amount of emissions that will be reduced as a result.
That’s done by trial and error and it’s a hit-and-miss process that often misses.
British Columbia has had a carbon tax since 2008, which started out as revenue neutral and which Trudeau used as the model for his carbon pricing regime.
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Today, B.C.’s carbon tax is no longer revenue neutral and emissions have risen 10% in the last three years and in five of the previous seven.
The best indicator of future performance is past practice and the Liberals have never hit a single emission reduction target they’ve set since 1993.
What the Liberals can say is that their emissions strategy includes a carbon tax/price, while Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives claim they can reduce emissions by 2030 in line with the commitment Trudeau made in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, without a national carbon tax.
O’Toole hasn’t yet explained how.
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