OPENING DAY PREVIEW: What has to go right for Toronto Blue Jays to contend in AL East?

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The less said about a 74-88 season the better.

The Blue Jays players know it.

Their manager John Schneider knows it.

And a front office under steady attack is certainly well aware of the stakes that await when the 2025 season gets underway Thursday afternoon at the Rogers Centre.

Following the pomp and ceremony that’s always a highlight of the spring for Canadian sports fans — and for the first time in three seasons an opener at home — a season of cautious optimism awaits. But is it legit?

Can a team that was cemented in the American League East basement recover sufficiently in form to return to the postseason, as it was good enough to do the previous couple of years?

Will the contract status of stars Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette be an ongoing drag and distraction and is one or two of them being traded?

Will the new hired hands Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer and Jeff Hoffman — to name three acquisitions — be enough off-season upgrades from general manager Ross Atkins to matter?

Over 162 games and the next six months, we shall see. Onward, then, to our season (and season opener) primer:

WHAT HAS TO GO RIGHT

Let’s start with the serious business of how does a team that unquestionably has talent fall that far from playoff contention and more importantly, what has to go right to return to competitiveness. The optimistic view is the prevailing narrative in the clubhouse and one perhaps best captured by starter Chris Bassitt.

“If people are just themselves, we’re going to have a really hard time of not winning a lot of games,” Bassitt said. “I don’t think a lot of things have to go right for us to be good. I think a lot of things have to go wrong for us to be bad.”

Respectfully, there’s much more to it this critical season than that. In no particular order the Jays must score more runs — bunches of them — as Schneider noted prior to Wednesday’s team workout at the Rogers Centre.

To do that, they’ll need more than one bat beyond the top three of Bichette, Guerrero and Santander to emerge as key contributors at the plate. Which leads to our second question: Who is the fourth best bat on the team? We’ll hang up and listen.

The other big factor — and this is every team, every year — is to stay healthy. Bichette spent as much time on the IL as in the batting order last year and that was lethal. The thumb injury to Scherzer in the spring can’t be an ongoing concern.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG?

For a last-place team with much to prove — and improve upon — all sorts of things. As much as the starting rotation of Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Scherzer, Bassitt and Bowden Francis could be elite among the American League, there’s some age in most of those arms. The good news is the Jays have historically done well keeping their starters fit and as fresh as possible.

Moving to offence again, given that it was an ongoing blight the past two seasons, the consensus is that the Jays needed at least one more bat. Unless there’s improvement from a handful of hitters, the dearth of power and production could be troublesome.

Publicly and privately, those around the Jays are quick to tell you that the bullpen is much stronger than last year’s meltdown version. By all accounts, new closer Hoffman has elite stuff. But this will be his first crack at the full-time closer role and the Jays can’t afford a learning curve.

WHAT WE’LL BE WATCHING

A quick hit top-five of things we feel will be compelling viewing this season (in no particular order.)

1. Bo Bichette. If there’s a singular key that could turn around the moribund offence from a year ago, it comes from the bat of the 27-year-old former all star. Bichette’s 2024 was a write-off, a disaster in every way, but the previous incarnation of Blue Jay Bo was borderline elite. And on Wednesday, Schneider heaped this praise on his shortstop: “He’s right up there with the best I’ve ever seen him.”
2. Home Run Derby. Will the team HR title go to Santander — he of 44 homers last year and 105 of the previous three years — or Guerrero — he of the 48 dingers in 2021?
3. Max Scherzer. Scheduled to make his Blue Jays debut on Saturday, the future Hall of Famer is must-see every time he steps on the mound. His presence and his pedigree were on display with some Grapefruit League brilliance. Now about that thumb …
4. Alan Roden. As the first position player drafted and developed by the Jays to debut in years, we’re all in on seeing if his at-times sensational spring offensive form holds up.
5. Attendance. Jays fans, generally a hearty lot, seem to be in a wait-and see-mode. Lean crowds in April are expected for any team, any year …  but not in mid summer. If there’s a slow start will the largely loyal fan base push back by keeping wallets in pockets?

JOIN THE CLUB(HOUSE)

In the aftermath of last year’s debacle, it became clear that the Jays weren’t exactly operating in a harmonious clubhouse every day.

There was the frustration of losing, of course, but more than one player this spring has commented on how that led to an unpleasant work environment at times.

“There were a lot of things that didn’t make us (confident or happy) last year,” said pitcher Jose Berrios, who will get the opening day start for a second consecutive year. “But we worked on that and we talked about it. Our relationship with the coaching staff is better. We are transparent. That’s the first thing to start the season the right way.”

Schneider has admitted to learning and evolving on the job as he embarks on his third full season at the helm. And he has worked particularly at fostering and retaining trust.

“Clubhouses … man, they change every year,” Schneider said. “They change every week, every month and you learn on the fly. I think players are driving it and at the end of the day, players own that space. If we can kind of be in lockstep with them as to what’s important and what’s going on, then that’s a win.”

Schneider said that he and his staff learn from every season whether the results are good or bad. He also thinks there’s value to most of the additions this off-season being on multi-year deals.

“We learned from the post-season a couple of years ago (when things collapsed horrifically in Minnesota),” Schneider said. “You move on. And it changes with personnel. I do think there is something to be said about having new faces that are everyday players that are here on long term contracts, as opposed to one year contracts. That rubs off.”

START ‘EM UP

Historically, baseball players are wired to ride the waves tied to the grind of a 162-game season and are generally loathe to read too much into small sample sizes.

But this version of the Jays really needs a strong start after all that’s gone awry, doesn’t it? The ability to compete in the toughest division in baseball depends on it. The roster composition in terms of possible trade deadline moves is tied to it The future of the front office could be dependent on a good early showing. And the ability to sell tickets almost certainly requires it.

Darting out of the gates won’t be an easy task, however. While it will be nice to start at home for a change, a grind of 20 scheduled games in 21 days will be a test. Furthermore, 29 of the first 32 are against teams pegged to be contenders.

“The way I see it, last year we played well after the all-star break, but we had a rough beginning to the season,” Berrios said. “If we play positive in the first month, we’ll be in a (much) better position than we were last year. We need to play hard. We need to compete. And we need to be positive in the standings in the first two months.”

For a team that showed signs of fragility last year, it could be even more critical.

FREE AGENT FRENZY

The storyline that won’t go away is the ongoing contractual discussion around pending free agents Guerrero and Bichette. It’s a storyline that has captured the fan base and observers all around baseball. But will it be a distraction in the clubhouse and dugout? Players say no.

“The guys here are very smart,” said catcher Alejandro Kirk, fresh off signing a four-year, $58-million US contract extension. “They know how to separate and they work hard.”

No doubt weary of addressing the issue through six weeks of spring training, Schneider offered a diplomatic answer when asked if there was added pressure given the potential Last Dance scenario with Bichette and Guerrero.

“There’s always expectations, always pressure, so rather than run from that, I think you lean into it a little bit,” Schneider said. “Everyone kind of gets where we are (with expiring contracts). I think if we let it effect us then we’re not playing our best brand of baseball.

“We understand what’s at stake.”

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