Are Blue Jays bracing for potential plunge in Rogers Centre attendance?

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When the Blue Jays open their season at home for the first time since 2022 — and just the second time since 2019 — you can expect close to a full house at the Rogers Centre.

Even coming off a last-place finish in the American League East, it will be a welcome return for a team anxious for redemption and a restless fan base.

“I can’t wait,” manager John Schneider said in Dunedin towards the end of spring training. “To open on the road the last two years has been unique and with its own set of challenges.

“Opening day to me is like a national holiday and to do it in front of your home fans in your home stadium, there’s nothing better than it.”

What remains to be seen, however, is how long that welcoming feeling is sustained beyond Thursday’s first contest of 162.

A loyal fan base, that streamed through the gates just shy of 2.7-million strong last season, seems to be in wait-and-see mode, if seat maps on the team’s official website are an indicator.

While the home opener, with that national holiday element, is approaching a full sellout, good seats — and plenty of ’em — remain for most of the seven-game home stand to start the season.

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Much of April, as often is the case with teams around baseball, appears to be extremely lean as the usual drags on attendance come into play. But even through the summer months, wide swaths of seats are available for games.

Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro acknowledges that there are challenges in selling seats for a team coming off a disappointing season and especially during the early weeks of the new one.

“Ultimately, some of (ticket sales) is going to be team-performance driven,” Shapiro said in a recent interview with the Toronto Sun. “Some of that’s going to be us continuing to deliver on superior (fan) experience. I’m confident that we’ll continue to grow our base, but we’re already at a very good number within the context of the game.”

Indeed, the Jays had solid attendance in 2024 with 2,681,236 (or an average of 33,102) filling the Rogers Centre seats, ranking them third of 15 teams in the American League. Walk-up crowds were certainly discouraged with the team’s collapse, resulting in a drop of close to 350,000 from the previous season.

While Shapiro remains confident the team will draw well in 2025, he did acknowledge that with so many seats to sell in the renovated Rogers Centre, performance is a factor. A slow start from a last-place team wouldn’t exactly motivate an already skeptical fan base to open their wallets.

“We had 2.7 million fans last year in a year that was very disappointing, a year that was disastrous from our expectations,” Shapiro said. “It (the season) was the biggest disconnect from our expectations since I’ve been here. Winning is ultimately the biggest lever and the biggest driver, but I think we’re in position to draw similar numbers, if not better than last year, if the team is much better.

“There’s always a huge dependence (on results).”

A pretty big “if” from the prez there, obviously, for a Jays team that has 20 scheduled games in 21 days to start.

To be fair, the Jays under Shapiro’s watch have been adept at selling tickets, helped by a team with exciting young stars and that, prior to 2024, had been in the post-season for back-to-back years. Extensive and modern renovations to the aging dome have dramatically elevated the fan experience and the response from ticket buyers has been enthusiastic and tangible.

As well, the Jays have been aggressive and innovative in their marketing by offering cheap, multi-game packages in the Rogers Centre’s upper bowl to get people in the building.

For an example, the “Leadoff offer” — which no longer is available — offered a 500-level seat for all 29 home games in March, April and May for $179 or just over $6 per game before taxes and fees.

As well, the Loonie Tuesdays program — featuring $1 hot dogs, which return next week with the Washington Nationals in town — has been a massive hit.

If attendance doesn’t pick up — or if the team falters performance wise — expect further aggressive marketing going forward.

While the bulk of renovations to the stadium were completed prior to the 2024 season, the addition of Club 328 for 2025 is getting rave reviews from most who have seen it.

Shapiro maintains that even though overall ticket sales may be sluggish, fans continue to buy in the premium areas, including 328. Those high-end sections are the real revenue producers, especially those sold for season-long packages.

“We need to do better selling lower bowl (seats), more plans, more multiple-game tickets in the lower bowl,” Shapiro said.

Beyond Thursday’s gala opener, which is a celebration in almost each of the 30 MLB stadiums, things will be lean for the rest of the month. This is nothing new, of course, and not unique to the Toronto baseball scene.

“We’re going to have some tough days in April, that’s a fact,” Shapiro acknowledged. “With other teams in the playoffs in our market, it being cold, kids still in school … it’s always a challenge to market against April.”

Just one of many facing a team looking to rebound in the standings and its public perception.