Toronto Blue Jays may be spenders this off-season, but will it make a difference?

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They may be a top-10 payroll, bottom-10 standings last-place team, but in recent winters the Blue Jays have managed to be the leaders in something.

While it’s true they don’t always get their man, rarely is the team not in the conversation for some of the bigger names on the market.

And they spend. Profusely.

Cynics roll their eyes at the concept, but say this about general manager Ross Atkins: With the money at his disposal, he does his due diligence and enters the fray of most meaningful players in the market.

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But being “in” on the top players and landing them are two different stories. It’s one thing to play the part of a big-market, big-spending, determined-to-contend team, but quite another to both get what you want and need and to spend wisely.

It’s universally accepted by all those outside of the Jays front office that this is easily the most important off-season of Atkins’ tenure.

Vaguely, Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro has suggested that the money is there to spend in terms of overall payroll, but with so many big-money contracts on the docket already, it is unlikely the Jays will have much impact at the top end of the market beyond landing one impactful bat not named Juan Soto.

Rumblings out of the GM meetings, which wrap up Thursday in San Antonio, suggest that this winter will be like most others under Atkins’ reign. The team will be in discussions will all the pertinent players, even if it is merely kicking tires to get a feel for the overall market.

It doesn’t hurt that the Toronto front office has a better relationship than it did in the past with super agent Scott Boras, who represents many of the gems of this year’s class.

But what will it get them?

Position-wise, the Jays will look for a corner outfielder and possibly reliable, veteran help on the infield.

Judging by Atkins’ comments and the potential limitations on budget, don’t expect more than one seriously impactful bat. Once again, “internal improvement” — this time significantly so — will be relied upon as the Jays’ key to returning to competent contenders.

Those around baseball — from rival executives to big-name agents — will be keeping a close eye on the Jays to determine the direction they’re headed.

IT’S A DATE

As the GM meetings conclude in San Antonio, it serves as the kicking-off point for the busy winter agenda. It should start to gain momentum soon, though not at the rapid-fire speed that NHL free agency wraps up.

In fact, with Boras holding so many cards including the prize of this year’s class, Soto, expect the off-season to proceed at slow-dance speed over the next couple of months.

Some key dates along the way:

Nov. 19: Rule 5 Draft 40-man protection deadline. The day teams must decide if there are players they are willing to part with and expose to potential pickup from rivals.

Nov. 22: Non-tender deadline. The date arbitration-eligible players must be offered a contract by or else become free agents. In a Jays context, the most notable name is closer Jordan Romano, who would project to have his salary raised to close to $8 million US for 2025. But after a rough season that ended in elbow surgery, the Canadian closer’s future would appear to be in jeopardy, a notion Atkins had no interest in cooling off during his post-season press conference.

Dec. 8: Winter Meetings begin in Dallas and the traditional time that the off-season begins to gather traction. Also on the agenda is the draft lottery and the Rule 5 draft.

DRAFT SCHMAFT

As far as immediate, high-end impact goes, the MLB draft easily is the least significant of the major North American pro sports.

As a rule, the time from draft day to impact on a major league roster is measured in multiple years, not months, so it’s difficult for a fan base to get overly excited come draft day itself.

That said, a miserable 74-win season has the Jays positioned to pick at a much better spot than in recent seasons. In fact, the Jays have the fifth-lowest odds to win the draft lottery, which will take place during the Winter Meetings in Dallas on Dec. 10.

Of course, the Jays’ draft record of late hasn’t exactly been stellar and added to the team’s winter to-do list is to find a replacement for amateur scouting director Shane Farrell, who bolted for the Detroit Tigers in October.

HOT CORNER VLAD?

Among the predictable speculation out of the GM meetings comes the notion that the Jays would be open for Vlad Guerrero Jr. to return to third base.

The team flirted with the experiment late in 2024 where Guerrero played a dozen games at the hot corner. And while he’s certainly a backup option there, it seems doubtful the team would want to move him there permanently.

Atkins had this to say about the idea back in October: “I think it would be a very, very big ask. I think staying open to that as something that can help us (but) is that 20 games or is that 100 games? There’s a big difference there.”