Make or break time for Blue Jays who can't afford to collapse

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According to FanGraphs, a regularly visited baseball website that provides all kinds of meaningful and meaningless stats, the Blue Jays have a 95.5% chance of appearing in the post-season.

Given the club sits atop the AL East and trails only Detroit for the best record in the American League with 34 games remaining in the regular season, failure to advance to baseball’s second season amounts to a 100% embarrassment.

A series loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence as a three-game set in Miami begins Friday night, an occasion that will usher in the debut of former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber and the expected return of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose left hamstring inflammation forced him to leave the series opener at PNC Park.

The return of George Springer following his concussion setback and his presence at leadoff the previous five games can’t be understated.

When he returned, the corresponding roster move involved Joey Loperfido being sent down to Triple-A.

When everyone knew Bieber would be activated, Braydon Fisher became the casualty.

The business of baseball is a daily exercise when unwitting victims emerge.

At the end of the day, clubs are measured on wins and losses.

The Jays have done their fair share of wins.

In fact, 74 wins have been compiled to match last season’s combined total.

Bieber has the pedigree and profile to have an impact on the handful of starts he’s likely to get as the regular season winds down, but he’s also coming off Tommy John surgery.

He hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since April of last season when he was a member of the Cleveland Guardians.

The Jays have a veteran-laden starting rotation that is quite deep.

Routine defines baseball and having a six-man rotation can be delicate, which is why Eric Lauer will be available out of the bullpen, at least for the time being.

The Jays have feasted at home and have brought the baseball buzz back to the city and by extension to the country, but the club’s playoff-worthiness will soon be tested, if it hasn’t already.

All these feel-good stories involving relatively unsung players, positional or pitching, sounds uplifting, but no one knows how the likes of an Addison Barger, Ernie Clement or a Brendon Little, among others, will handle the upcoming glare and scrutiny.

The Jays enter Thursday, an off day for the club, four games ahead of the New York Yankees.

In reality, the Jays are five up on the Bronx Bombers having already clinched the season series, punctuated by a 6-1 run at home that began with a four-game sweep.

The Boston Red Sox sit 5.5 games in arrears of the Blue Jays.

The Jays will be in the Bronx for a three-game series beginning Sept. 5, while the BoSox visit Toronto in the penultimate series on Sept. 23 before Toronto closes out the regular season with a three-game home set against Tampa.

“In order to get to where you want to get to you have to be able to have a quick memory,” said Jays manager John Schneider following his team’s 5-2 loss in Pittsburgh in the series opener.

To their credit, the Jays did respond by handing the Buccos a 7-3 loss when Max Scherzer provided his team with his fifth quality start.

In the series finale, Chris Bassitt pitched well, but the Jays’ offence managed to produce one run, a leadoff homer by Springer no less, in a 2-1 loss.

Infuriatingly sloppy in the late innings in the first game, offensively challenged in the series finale, those two games represented snapshots of what should concern supporters of the club, fans that have yet to see a post-season win in the Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette era.

When too many errors are committed in one loss, when too few hits are recorded in another the red flags begin to surface.

It didn’t help when three Toronto relievers combined to issue four walks in the span of three innings in the series opener in Pittsburgh.

Whether it’s described as turning the metaphorical page or simply moving on to the next day, when an actual game is played that is, having short memories is another fundamental aspect to the grind that is a 162-game season.

The Jays have managed to come this far, dealing with all sorts of injuries and issues, but this is just the beginning of what awaits.

The myriad metrics and the insufferable stats associated with baseball can tell a story.

The real story is measured in real time and what the eyes see.

Without Vlad Jr., the Jays are nowhere near as good and nor are they near as threatening at the plate.

With Springer, the club’s best hitter is back in the lineup and back to where he has always belonged at the top of the order.

Scherzer appears to have turned the clock, while Bieber, who is under immense pressure, remains a big unknown.

Jose Berrios has hit a fork in the road, while the likes of Bassitt and Kevin Gausman have each shown they can be as inconsistent as any pitcher on the staff.

Jeff Hoffman has stepped up, but the Jays’ incumbent closer has also failed to seal the deal.

Nothing is ever taken for granted in pro sports and no one should be delusional in thinking the Jays will soon begin a deep post-season run.

What is clear and indisputable is the Jays will require the benefit of home field to mount any playoff threat.

With 128 games in the book, the story of the Jays’ 2025 season is far from complete.