What happens over next 12 games will reveal more about wildly inconsistent Blue Jays

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Baseball will drive you crazy and, of greater relevance here, what the Toronto Blue Jays have done through the first two-plus months of the 2025 season will expedite the process.

How crazy? Let’s go from one Monday to the next for the ultimate snapshot of insanity around a team so wildly inconsistent that there never truly is a dull moment.

A week ago, it was doom and gloom after getting swept over three games in Tampa, a performance that was about to get almost worse as part of a six-game trip in which the Jays would score a meagre total of six combined runs.

This week, on a much-welcomed off day, the Jays now are riding a five-game winning streak — the longest meaningful one since late in the 2023 season. (They had a five-gamer last August, but by then had sold off at the trade deadline and were well on their way to the AL East basement).

Not only that, and most impressively, in a four-game brooming of the woeful Athletics over the weekend, the Jays scored a whopping 39 runs, wowing and rejuvenating large Rogers Centre crowds.

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Somewhere in the middle of those two dramatic, small-sample size extremes lies the truth of what this team is, of course. But for the first time all season, the positivity around a Jays team looking to reveal a new identity feels real.

What matters is what happens next, of course, and that begins with a real test against the visiting Phillies, who are in town for a three-game series at the Rogers Centre starting on Tuesday.

Who knows what is sustainable with this team, one which repeatedly fluctuates from three games below .500 to three games above, but the last week accomplished a number of things.

Besides that winning streak — and a victory on Tuesday would extend it to six, which hasn’t happened for the Jays since late April of 2023 — the Jays have set themselves up to erase the price paid for their inconsistencies earlier in the season.

Heading into play Monday, the Jays were just a half game out of a wild-card spot. A week ago, they were fourth in the AL East and now sit second, suddenly (surprisingly?) just 5.5 games behind the Yankees for the division lead.

Baseball Reference projections calculate that the Jays odds to make the post-season have jumped 24.7% in the past week, up to 41%.

That’s what an explosion of offence will do for a team that suddenly has a run differential that is down to minus-5, the lowest it has been since early in the season. Again, thank the awful A’s for the bump, but the Jays seized upon the opportunity of pounding on a weakling for a run that, if this season ends in success, will be seen as the launching point.

So, is it at all sustainable? The Jays still have flaws, so we’ll let them play the 103 remaining games on the schedule before we make any proclamations.

But, in no particular order, there are some positives to build on:

• Bam Bam Barger. The Jays always have known Addison Barger has a strong arm and can wield a big bat, but what we saw against the A’s sure felt special. Not only did he hit three home runs, each were hit with such violence that they were jaw-dropping in nature. It certainly entertained the possibility of Barger becoming the elusive bonus power bat the team has needed and the type of game-changing power that can alter the direction of a season.
• Off-season additions. It probably isn’t talked about enough, but the Jays are in a position of contention despite having five of their key new guys currently on the injured list. Second baseman Andres Gimenez likely will be activated this week, but has been out for 23 games; starter Max Scherzer has missed 55;, relievers Yimi Garcia (10) and Nick Sandlin (37) have been missing from the bullpen and Anthony Santander officially has been out for three, but sidelined for a handful more.
• Of those absences, the possibility of healthy and fruitful returns of Scherzer and Santander could change everything for this team. One was signed to be an elite, veteran presence in the rotation, the other to mash home runs as an igniter to the offence. Those two possibilities alone are something to dream on.
• The standings. As often-mentioned, the Jays are beneficiaries from the muddled American League where few teams have separated themselves. It has allowed them to stay in touch, even when things were going poorly. A win on Tuesday would take them four games above .500, a place they haven’t been since April 13.

It truly is remarkable how the narrative around a team can shift so dramatically in a week and few sports allow it the way baseball does. It helps sustain — and at times infuriate — a fan base over the course of 162 games.

Perhaps the Jays have turned a corner, perhaps they are truly a team destined to straddle .500 for the distance.

And, perhaps, with their next 12 games against opponents that currently have better records than them, we’re about to get a better idea of the team’s true identity.