Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Raptors? Breaking down likelihood of blockbuster deal for Bucks star

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The Giannis Antetokounmpo-to-Toronto trade rumours are in their 12th year and might not die down until the phenom either plays for the Raptors or retires.

Back in 2013, Masai Ujiri, then freshly installed as the boss of the Raptors, had more interest in the rail-thin, ultra-raw, but ultra-intriguing teenager than nearly any other team executive, but couldn’t close a deal to get into the draft to select him in the late lottery.

Antetokounmpo kept growing, kept getting better and ultimately led the Milwaukee Bucks to a title while wining a pair of NBA MVP awards and nearly every other award you could think of.

Toronto has tried to keep its powder dry on at least a couple of occasions salary cap-wise when Antetokounmpo was approaching free agency, only to see the Bucks twice sign him to new deals.

But now Milwaukee is in bad shape, competitively speaking. Antetokounmpo’s running mate, fellow NBA 75th Anniversary Team member Damian Lillard, will soon turn 35 and just tore his Achilles. The team doesn’t have a good enough roster to make any noise, lacking prospects and draft picks, so the speculation is the extremely competitive Antetokounmpo and the franchise will be heading for a split at some point as he chases another championship.

Well-respected ESPN reporter Brian Windhorst caused a stir this weekend when he said on his Hoop Collective Podcast that Toronto is looking to make a major move this off-season and is trying to land a “big fish.”

Windhorst said: “There are some teams that sniff the ability to make a move and I think Toronto is one of those teams. And so naturally, any team that wants to make a move this summer, especially a team in the Eastern Conference, you’re going to have Giannis on the board.

“But Toronto, from their initial conversations, teams in the league are getting the impression that Toronto is going to try and do something. I had an executive tell me yesterday that he thinks this could be an explosive summer.”

Let’s break it all down:

WHY GIANNIS?

Let’s keep this short. He just finished third in MVP voting (the third time that has happened and he also has been fourth twice in addition to his two wins), is at worst the fourth-best player in the league and is the most dominant athletic force since prime Shaquille O’Neal or LeBron James.

He also is under contract for two more seasons with a player option on a third.

He’d be the best player in franchise history, with apologies to Kawhi Leonard, and has shown no signs of slippage in his play.

With Jayson Tatum probably out all next season and Boston looking to cut its payroll, the East is pretty wide open.

Cleveland should be excellent again, finalist Indiana can bring its squad back and New York should be able to as well, but with Antetokounmpo, Toronto would be in the mix to win multiple playoff rounds. That’s a lot better than missing the playoffs in four of the past five seasons as Toronto has done.

WHAT WOULD IT TAKE?

Raptors fans can daydream all they like that a deal could be made for Giannis that wouldn’t include all-star forward Scottie Barnes, but it’s non-sensical for the Bucks to accept one without him.

Toronto falling to No. 9 from No. 7 lowered the value of this year’s first-round pick. Had they leapt into the Top 4 maybe there was a small chance of a non-Barnes package being enough, but that ship has sailed.

Why would Milwaukee consider something like No. 9, Toronto’s 2026 first (keeping in mind Giannis and Barnes and whatever else is left would form a strong team in the weak Eastern Conference, meaning that pick would be somewhere around 17-22), swap rights in 2027 (unlikely to convey since the Bucks will probably be worse than Toronto), 2028 first (still not a high pick if Giannis is around), 2029 swap option and Toronto’s 2030 first plus prospects like Ja’Kobe Walter, Gradey Dick and the players on lucrative deals required to make the money work (two of RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl or Immanuel Quickley)?

Toronto would need Quickley’s shooting to make a Giannis/Barnes pairing work, anyway.

So, it would have to be something like Barnes, Walter or Dick, Barrett or Poeltl or Quickley and multiple first-round picks going the other way.

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COULDN’T MILWAUKEE DO BETTER?

Even if Toronto surrendered Barnes, Milwaukee still could receive better offers. Any team would love to have an all-time great who is still dominant on both ends of the floor. Surely someone would dangle even more enticing options.

We’ve floated previously teams like Houston, Orlando, San Antonio (Dylan Harper or Stephon Castle and picks, anyone?) and maybe New Orleans (owners of plenty of future Milwaukee picks from the Jrue Holiday deal) as potentially having better ammunition to close a deal.

Even if Barnes would be a better headliner than anything they could offer (unless Orlando says Paolo Banchero or maybe Franz Wagner are available), the other teams can offer far better future first-round picks than Toronto can.

Toronto would have to bank on Antetokounmpo pressuring Milwaukee to keep him in the East (since it would give him a far better shot of going deep in the playoffs in multiple seasons), specifically wanting to play for the Raptors and for the Bucks honouring those wishes out of deference to the best player in franchise history

WHY IS EVERYONE TALKING ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW?

Insiders have speculated that there is going to be lots of trade action this off-season due to the restrictive new CBA, major injuries and unhappy stars and/or owners. The Windhorst report on an extremely popular podcast threw gas on the fire and Vegas is starting to take note.

According to Sportsbetting.ag, odds on the Raptors landing Giannis have plunged from 25-1 to 2-1 over the past two weeks, suggesting that where there’s smoke, there is at least some fire regarding the rumours. Those odds doesn’t mean he’s on his way to Toronto, but heavily suggest there is some interest in it happening. Similar things popped up in the days before Leonard landing with the Raptors.

Plus, there’s the fact Ujiri is entering the last year of his latest deal and has presided over a free-falling organization since the year after the championship.

They waited too long to acquire a centre (Poeltl) and then later to trade Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, saw Fred VanVleet walk, possibly overpaid on Quickley’s new contract based on a dire need for pull-up three-point shooting and are coming off the longest stretch without success in years.

Things have been turning around, led by Barnes and a promising 2024 draft class, but with Rogers set to become sole owner and Sportsnet reporting season ticket sales down, Ujiri might feel a bigger need than ever to make a huge splash.

@WolstatSun