Toronto Raptors mailbag: Is Giannis coming to town? RJ Barrett on the move?

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It has been a while since we did a Toronto Raptors mailbag. But with the most insane lottery in recent memory completed and the NBA draft just a month away, now’s as good a time as any to take reader questions.

Here’s part 1 with a thanks as always for the questions. Part 2, with more of a focus on the draft and ownership changes, will drop later in the week:

Sean @Whispering375: Why would Raptors look to trade RJ Barrett? He’s been a bucket-getter. Who would you move this summer?

@D13Drafts asks: “It seems that RJ Barrett is the most likely piece of the core to be moved. What do you think is a likely destination for RJ & do you expect to see movement on that front?”

Ryan Wolstat: It’s a fair take D13 and one I’ve made myself in past columns (arguing either Barrett or Ochai Agbaji might have to go at some point to avoid the luxury tax).

Though Barrett checks a lot of boxes (at 24, he’s actually the second-youngest “core” piece, not including the ninth pick of this coming draft, he’s the leading scorer each of the last two seasons, a homegrown star and puts a lot of pressure on the rim, unlike most of his teammates), he likely has a more moveable contract than other core Raptors.

Immanuel Quickley arguably has a more-needed key skill, with his ability to hit pull-up three-pointers, than Barrett, Brandon Ingram isn’t going anywhere and the team believes in Gradey Dick and Ja’Kobe Walter a lot, making Barrett perhaps superfluous because Ingram will replace his points and, between Dick and Walter, they can absorb the bulk of the shooting guard minutes (with Agbaji potentially playing some as well or Quickley sliding over beside Jamal Shead).

And Sean, I agree on the sentiment of why move him?

It was a bit odd Toronto didn’t push Barrett for all-star consideration at all even though he was the leading scorer and was putting up insane numbers at home. They like him and opted for a deal that included him from New York instead of other variations that didn’t, but don’t seem to value the Canadian connection, the work ethic, personality, bucket-getting abilities and improved defensive commitment as they should (clearly I like Barrett more than many people do).

I don’t see what the Raptors do with Dick and would be intrigued what he’d fetch on the market, but not sure it would be enough to give up on him now (if he has another overall year like this past campaign, though, it would be hard to get any value for him), but not sure there’s any other obvious choice to trade, unless Agbaji could get you something nice before you have to potentially overpay him.

As for who might be interested in Barrett? Hard to say right now until we see bigger dominos fall around the league. If he is dealt, it would be stunning to see it happen this off-season instead of next or even in season (unless it’s to make the money work in a deal returning a superstar).

Which brings us to:

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Pierro @Oliaros2: How good a chance to the Raps have at landing Giannis Antetokounmpo and do you know if that’s even a serious consideration?

Chris Hill: Do you think they’re serious players for Giannis?

RW: Went over this in more detail earlier this month. While Masai Ujiri has surprised me in the past (I was as big a Kawhi rumour sceptic as you can get) we just can’t imagine they have an offer good enough to get it done.

It would take Giannis saying ‘move me to Toronto and Toronto only’ for it to happen, realistically. Plenty of teams can blow the best Raptors package out of the water since the team fell to ninth in the lottery from seventh.

Toronto’s best offer (something like Barnes, No. 9, two of Dick, Walter, Agbaji, their 2026 first, 2027 first swap option, 2028 first, 2029 first swap option) looks OK until you think about alternatives for the Bucks, who don’t control most of their future draft picks so have little incentive to stink the next couple of years, meaning they’d either want a lot more instant help than Toronto can offer, or control of their picks back.

Houston could offer all-star Alperen Sengun and Reed Sheppard plus better picks or Jabari Smith, Sheppard and picks.

San Antonio could offer the second pick of the draft (likely Dylan Harper) and pieces to make salary work, plus other picks.

Orlando could build a package around Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs plus picks (or Paolo Banchero, but that’s probably unlikely).

New Orleans could give Milwaukee its picks back (acquired in the Jrue Holiday trade) and Zion Williamson or something like that and we’re probably missing a team or two.

For what it’s worth, Vegas believes Milwaukee is about 50-50 to keep Giannis. San Antonio and Houston have the best odds of trading for him, followed by Brooklyn, Miami and New York, though the latter three are significant longshots.

To me, Houston makes the most sense with a bunch of variations to make it happen.

Spencer Smith: How is it possible that the Raptors had the 26th-ranked defensive rating in 2023-24 with OG and Pascal on the team???

RW: If you were watching closely that year, it was clear Anunoby was not the same dude he was in a fully motivated 2022-23, when he led the NBA in steals and deflections and should have made the all-defensive first team instead of the second.

While OG wasn’t exactly doing the full Vince Carter “I quit,” he wasn’t having close to his usual impact (and, like Carter, once he landed in the New York area, he took back off and turned back into the player he had been before).

Siakam’s drop-off defensively was stark that year, too, likely a result of the trade rumours, declining relationship with the front office and lack of coherence with Darko Rajakovic.

Toronto also replaced Fred VanVleet’s pesky brand of defence with Dennis Schroder and Malachi Flynn — sub-optimal, to say the least — leading to many more breakdowns, plus Gary Trent Jr. took two or three steps backwards defensively from the previous year.

All that said, once Siakam and Anunoby were traded and when the remaining players pretty much all got hurt or had to leave the team for personal matters, the Raptors slipped to 29th defensively and rarely won a game.

So they were still better defensively with Siakam and Anunoby at, say, 60% of their capabilities, than without them entirely.