Are Toronto Raptors or Charlotte Hornets in better long-term spot?
Toronto has way more talent but is in a worse salary cap situation and won't have as good a shot at Cooper Flagg.
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We’ve reached the point of this Raptors season where storylines are dying down as the campaign reaches its conclusion.
Which is why today we’re taking stock of who is in a better long-term spot: Toronto or the Charlotte Hornets — Friday’s opponent at Scotiabank Arena.
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Are Toronto Raptors or Charlotte Hornets in better long-term spot? Back to video
BACKGROUND
Only Detroit has lost more games since 2009-10 (506) then Charlotte and this will be the ninth straight year the franchise misses the playoffs.
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They’ve only made it three times in the past 21 seasons — yikes — and haven’t won a round since doing so in both 2000-01 and 2001-02.
Charlotte could finish last in home attendance for a second straight year, which isn’t surprising given that ugly history, even though North Carolina is one of the world’s hotbeds of hoops.
Toronto will miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons, but at least has a somewhat recent championship win, has another conference final appearance to remember and is doing just fine attendance-wise.
ADVANTAGE: Raptors
ROSTER OUTLOOK
Top players: LaMelo Ball, Hornets; Scottie Barnes, Raptors.
Both players are one-time all-stars with a rookie of the year award under their belt. Both fill boxscores like few others, but have some limitations at this point.
Barnes is the superior defender by far and has been able to stay a lot healthier.
Ball’s shooting has dipped to a career-low 33.9% from three and 40.5% overall, but he is a more dangerous shooter.
Most would agree Barnes is more impactful overall than Ball, who has been knocked as an “empty calories” type of player, despite his immense skill level.
Other key long-term pieces: Hornets: Brandon Miller, Mark Williams (maybe), Tidjane Salaun (maybe).
Raptors: Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick (maybe), Ja’Kobe Walter (maybe), Jamal Shead.
ADVANTAGE: Raptors
Other solid veterans: Hornets: Miles Bridges. Raptors: Jakob Poeltl, RJ Barrett.
ADVANTAGE: Raptors.
Clearly Toronto is well ahead of one of its cellar-dwelling rivals. Ball is a huge question mark, as is Williams, who was nearly dealt to the Los Angeles Lakers before L.A. balked at his physical. Miller looks extremely promising, but has missed much of the season. There is precious little veteran help there.
DRAFT PICK SITUATION
Charlotte has a solid shot at having the best odds, along with Washington and Utah, of landing Duke star Cooper Flagg (currently 14%, same as the other two teams at the bottom of the standings), and 52.1% odds at a Top 4 selection, the same as Washington and Utah.
You could argue no franchise needs Flagg more than the Hornets. The team will not have its second-round pick until 2028, which isn’t ideal.
Still, the Hornets do have a second rounder coming from equally terrible New Orleans this year and another next year coming from Golden State or Denver.
Toronto is in a neutral situation picks-wise, but will need lottery luck to select before Charlotte this year.
ADVANTAGE: Charlotte.
SALARY CAP OUTLOOK
For a franchise that has done this poorly, the cap situation should be a lot rosier. Ball makes $35 million US this season and that number will rise for four more years until it hits $46.3 million.
Bridges makes too much, while Jusuf Nurkic is owed $19.375 million next year and is nearly unplayable at this point.
There aren’t many pathways to improving significantly anytime soon either, short of landing Flagg or Dylan Harper in the draft. The team will likely stink next year, too, giving itself a great shot at a high pick in what is expected to be an equally impressive draft crop.
Meanwhile, Toronto, after trading for and extending Ingram, is in a sub-optimal spot cap-wise.
With the mega Barnes extension kicking in and Quickley highly paid, decisions will need to be made either next year or after that on the likes of Barrett and Ochai Agbaji.
Poeltl also will need a new deal in a year, so new sole owners Rogers will be asked to pay the luxury tax (something MLSE has only done twice ever) for a group nobody expects to be a legitimate contender.
ADVANTAGE: Charlotte, with lottery luck this year and/or next OR Toronto if Hornets don’t land in Top 2 this year.
OVERALL
We have to lean Toronto, but ask us again after the lottery in May and the answer might be different.
Flagg or Harper (even though its unclear if he’d work with Ball, given both are lead dogs who need the ball at almost all times) would change things since either are seen as better foundational pieces than anyone on either roster right now.
Should Charlotte land one of those two players, the franchise would be in a far different spot (we’d lean Toronto if the pick ends up being Ace Bailey, V.J. Edgecombe or anyone else).
At least Toronto will have a competent roster ready to make the playoffs and even give a team a scare in the first round.
It sucks being in the middle with no hope of winning a championship, but the Raptors would argue they are consistently adding talent and can make deals later to bring in the missing piece (ie. a player as good or better than Barnes, something they need to escape pretender status).
@WolstatSun
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