Raptors off-season primer: Draft lottery, salary cap and more

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The 30th anniversary Toronto Raptors season is now officially over. We heard from Masai Ujiri, Darko Rajakovic and the players during the week and the consensus was 2024-25 was a success, but it’s on to better things for 2025-26, including a return to some relevance and perhaps the post-season.

How do they get there? Well, let’s first look at where things stand and what’s next:

THE KEY DATE

Circle May 12 in your calendar. The second day of the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago (which runs May 11-18) could change the fortunes of a few lucky franchises (and a few unlucky ones too). Duke freshman phenom Cooper Flagg is the big prize of a loaded draft crop that also features dynamic offensive force Dylan Harper, of Rutgers, his taller teammate Ace Bailey, and a handful of other prospects who might have gone first or second in last year’s less impressive draft.

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Toronto has 7.5% odds at winning the lottery (seventh-best amongst all teams) and 31.9% odds at jumping into the Top 4, which happened in 2021 when Toronto was also seventh heading into the lottery and moved to four, allowing the team to eventually draft Scottie Barnes. The likeliest scenario though (34.1%) would see the Raptors drop to eighth, which would happen if any team behind them makes a lottery leap. Last year two teams behind the Raptors jumped, including Atlanta with just 3% odds, which meant Toronto went from sixth entering the lottery to eighth. That forced Toronto to send the pick to San Antonio to complete the Jakob Poeltl trade (otherwise it would have been Top 6 protected again this year.

The draft will take place on June 25 and 26.

THE ROSTER SITUATION

Barring any trades, Toronto’s roster for next season is already pretty clear. Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Poeltl, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley are the likely starting five, barring lottery luck which would make things interesting (a problem the Raptors would love to have).

Ochai Agbaji, Gradey Dick, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jamal Shead, Jonathan Mogbo and Jamison Battle bring the roster to 11. The lottery pick would make it 12. We’ll assume veteran leader Garrett Temple will be back, which takes it to 13. Canadian A.J. Lawson and big man Colin Castleton signed non-guaranteed contracts for 2025-26, giving the Raptors some flexibility at the end of the roster. NBA teams can field 15-man rosters, along with up to three two-way players. Ulrich Chomche, the youngest player in last year’s draft, is signed to one of those two-way contracts, scoring wing Jared Rhoden another. Toronto would have another available for an undrafted free agent or maybe the second round pick it owns from Portland.

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THE SALARY SITUATION

With Ingram signed to a rich extension and Barnes starting his mega-deal on top of prior commitments, the cap is tight. Ujiri said ownership would pay the luxury tax for the right roster, but that seemed to be code for “if we win the lottery” or a similar situation. It’s hard to see the Raptors spending in free agency, which would put them over the tax regardless of how the lottery balls fall (and it’s not like the franchise has had any success there anyway). For similar reasons, Chris Boucher, the longest-serving Raptor, is no longer a luxury the team can afford.

Things get even tighter in a year. Even though the salary cap (and luxury tax and penalty thresholds) is expected to take a big leap thanks to the monster new media deal the NBA signed, the Raptors might still be in a crunch. It could mean Agbaji is traded before he can sign a new deal (he could become a restricted free agent, giving his team the right to match any offer, after next season), or Barrett (unrestricted after two more seasons) in a larger deal.

That’s assuming Toronto and Poeltl will be able to work out a new long-term deal, since he can become an unrestricted free agent after next season. Poeltl just had a career year and has become an essential factor in whether the team can win games or not.

If Toronto stays in the 7-9 draft range, management will have more time to solve its tax crunch. If the pick is in the Top 4, the decisions will likely have to be made either this summer or during the season rather than next summer.

HOW CLOSE ARE THEY?

Miami just became the first team to advance to the playoffs as a 10th seed (the Heat had to win at Chicago and Atlanta to do so) and you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who’d argue the Heat has more talent than a healthy Raptors team. The Eastern Conference as a whole is far less imposing than the West. Boston and Cleveland are clearly the cream of the crop and that should be the case again next season, but after that it is pretty wide open. It says here Toronto is a fair bit better than any of the play-in teams this year other than maybe a full-strength Orlando Magic side, given the defensive ferocity that team plays with (but even that one is a debate).

The Raptors could be as high as the sixth spot by next year and definitely should be a play-in front-runner. Of the teams behind in the East, only Philadelphia projects to be as good or better than Toronto, and that’s making the dicey assumption that Joel Embiid will return to form and stay in the lineup, and that Paul George and Tyrese Maxey will be able to do the same.

Ujiri and his staff have far bigger goals of course, but until the lottery plays out it’s unclear how long it will take to meet them. Either way, the first step is getting back to the playoffs and the 2025-26 Raptors should be able to do that.

@WolstatSun