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New Orleans Saints quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (5) points to the Seattle Seahawks defense during the second half at CenturyLink Field. (Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports ORG)
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Out with the old quarterback, into the money. If only it were that easy.
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That being said, it was certainly the case in three prominent late Sunday starts from Week 3, games in which teams unveiling new quarterbacks got generous compensation in the lines.
YOU BET: Getting the money with NFL backup QBsBack to video
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First to the Steelers where Pittsburgh wasn’t able to win in the first try without Ben Roethlisberger behind centre but still cashed as 6.5-point road dogs and four-point losers to the 49ers in San Francisco.
Over to Tampa where a huge second half by the Giants and quarterback Daniel Jones was a profitable transition from the Eli Manning era. The G-men were 6.5 road dogs before claiming the outright 32-31 win.
And the final one among these big three, Teddy Bridgewater got the job done in place of injured Drew Brees as the Saints were 33-27 winners as four-point road underdogs in Seattle.
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So is there a handicapping lesson here? Not necessarily, though it’s worth pondering if the market — both in the lines and the way they are bet — over reacts in these situations. Good systems can integrate backups into a game plan and often the rest of the team will dig in to help out.
In each of these three cases, the market reaction helped the underdogs cover. Gut reaction lost out.
Speaking of underdogs, it was quite a late afternoon run for the puppies, who went a perfect and profitable 0-5 against the spread.
Four of the five — Panthers, Giants, Texans and Saints — were outright winners while the Steelers were the only losing cover team. That pushed favourites to a losing 5-9 vs. the spread in Week 3 heading into the Sunday night prime time tilt between the Browns and Rams.
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The Ravens, Cowboys and Packers remain the only 3-0 teams vs. the spread (with the Rams also alive heading into the Sunday night game in Cleveland.) The Lions, winners over Philly, are 2-0-1.
Your 0-3 money burners, meanwhile, are the lowly Miami Dolphins and the underachieving Philadelphia Eagles.
So if you were one of those adamant about taking a stand against three-touchdown underdogs just on principle, you broke even in Week 3.
That sounds about right.
The Cowboys, who closed as 22.5 point favourites over Miami, used a late touchdown to cash out with a 31-6 win while the Jets took advantage of the Patriots easing on the throttle to cover as 21.5 dogs in a 30-14 loss.
Who ya got when the 3-0 Patriots visit the 3-0 Bills in Week 4? The Super Bowl champs opened as 7.5 point favourites at Sports Interaction and many other books. Don’t be shocked if that number climbs in favour of the favourite.
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