Oilers eyeing 8-year deal for another d-man, insider speculates. Good idea?

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This in from Edmonton Oilers insider Bob Stauffer of Oilers Now, his speculation — and I want to stress this was speculation — that the Edmonton Oilers might be eyeing an eight-year contract extension for d-man Jake Walman, 29.

Said Stauffer, after first talking about a possible contract extension this summer for Mattias Ekholm: “There is something that the Oilers can do that nobody else can do, and it maybe might relates more to a guy like Jake Walman. But they could offer an eight-year contract extension, and we have shorter terms coming to the next CBA, which takes place next summer.”

Stauffer asked Oilers GM Stan Bowman about the possibility of extensions for Ekholm and Walman.

Said Bowman: “We’ve had a couple of preliminary conversations with the agents. And I think that’s one of the things that will happen over the next probably six weeks… to see if it’s something that lines up well for them and for us. And I’m pretty hopeful that we can do that.”

Bowman continued: “When you identify players that you like, that you think there’s a future for, and they can help your team, not only in the coming year, but in the years beyond that, then I think it makes sense to try to get something done. So that’s going to be something that we do over the next month, month and a half leading into training camp.”

My take

1. Jake Walman cost their Oilers a first-round pick in this coming draft. He was well worth the price based only on his play in the 2025 playoffs. He was a solid, tough, two-way d-man in a Top 4 role, most often paired with John Klingberg.

Walman showed a nasty streak and a wicked shot. He moved the puck smart and true. He got it quickly to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, right on their sticks in full stride. He stood up for his teammates. He was a significant addition to the Oilers.

For all that, a new eight-year deal for him seems like a stretch, given Walman’s age and the aging and performance curves of NHL d-men, who fall off fast in their mid-30s.

Of course, as mentioned, this eight-year deal notion was just speculation on Stauffer’s part but I bet he’s not mentioning it if he hasn’t heard it from a reliable Oilers source. Even then that doesn’t mean it’s happening. It means it’s a possibility. Maybe it’s something meant to stretch out and lower the annual cap hit so that Walman is affordable for the Oilers. But giving a 30 year-old d-man a big-money eight-year deal is a stretch in the NHL, at least if you’re expecting that player to perform as a Top 4 d-man for the majority of that deal.

2. There were 24 d-men in the NHL born in 1996, just like Walman, who played the 2024-25 regular season.

Ten of them, like Walman, played in a Top 4 role.

At $3.4 million per year, Walman was underpaid last year. He will be underpaid this year at age 29  for such a high level of performance. That’s another reason this was such a good trade for the Oilers.

3. Walman is a good bet to play well in a Top 4 role this coming year. At 29, he’s in the prime of life for an NHL d-man on average. The same goes for next year — the first year of any new deal for Walman, at least if we go by the average NHL d-man.

There were 29 30-year-old d-men in the NHL last year, with 18 of them playing in a Top 4 role. But after age 30 there’s a major drop off. In the 31-to-34 year-old age group, we see a 25 per cent drop off in the number of Top 4 d-men compared to the 27-to-30 year old category.

Walman could well drop off due to age and injury, but he’s still a decent bet to be playing Top 4 d-man hockey at ages 31, 32, 33 and maybe even 34. That’s how old Ekholm was last season and he certainly played strong Top 4 hockey, at least until a series of core injuries took some juice out of his game.

4. At age 35 and up, only the rarest of NHL d-men, players like Brent Burns, Drew Doughty, Ryan McDonagh, Chris Tanev and Kris Letang continued to play at Top 4 level in 2024-25.

Walman isn’t likely in that category, so while it’s an OK-ish bet, say a 66 per cent chance, that he’d play Top 4 hockey in the first five years of a new contract, it’s a terrible bet in what would be the final three years of the eight year deal.

Edmonton would be lucky to get serviceable bottom-pairing play out of him at that point.

5. Of course, if Walman had a no trade clause for four or five years (at most), maybe Edmonton could find a team willing to take on his cap hit. And if Edmonton signs him for eight years the plan would surely be to spread out that cap hit over time so that Edmonton can afford to have him now in the prime of McDavid and Draisaitl’s careers. Edmonton can also make the contract enticing by front-loading the maximum pay in the earlier years of the deal.

Let’s say that on today’s market Walman is worth $7 million per year and a five year bet on him is risky, but within the realm of reasonable. That’s $35 million in total, but it will be hard to make that cap hit work. If Walman gets it over eight years, it’s a cap hit of $4.38 million a year, which the Oilers might be able to handle.

There are ways an eight-year deal might well make sense for the Oilers.

But, again, if you’re expecting more than four or five years of Top 4 level of play out of Walman, you’re dreaming in technicolour.

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